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Russ isn't a fit for Hackett

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  • Russ isn't a fit for Hackett

    (YES, I am pissing in your cornflakes)

    Some things to consider....

    When Hackett and LaFluer came in to GB, they went 13-3, but had an expected record of 9-7 or 10-6 based on the metrics. They won several extremely games by just a few points all season long. But the point I wanted to make was that Rodgers actually regressed in his first year learning the Hackett offense...and that regression was on the heals of one of Rodgers worst years to begin with.

    Hacketts offense calls for alot of quick 3 step drop and throw on time type stuff. It took Rodgers time to adjust to this. He had averaged well over 2.75 seconds holding the ball, including his first season in Hackett's offense...that dropped to 2.5 in 2020, his second year in Hacketts system...and a year in wich he improved substantially over his previous 3 seasons.

    From Rodgers himself -

    A specific moment in training camp – a throw, to be exact – might just represent the turning point for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers as they entered Year 2 in Matt LaFleur’s offense.

    Asked for reasons behind his MVP-quality play this season, Rodgers pinpointed an on-time throw he made to receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling in August as the moment everything he worked on to prepare for the 2020 season snapped into place.

    The end result? A quarterback playing in perfect harmony within an offense, creating a passing game able to thrive on in-rhythm, on-time throws.

    “If you look at my play overall, obviously the line has been protecting well, but there have been so many more on-time throws, and a lot of that is due, not just to the schematics we’ve been doing, but to an emphasis on the rhythm in my drop, and finding a place to go with the ball on the first hitch. I think that’s been a big part of my success, our success, the protection’s success,” Rodgers said.

    Rodgers became much more of an on time, efficient distributor in 2020...wich is what the LaFluer/Hackett offense was designed to be.

    If Hackett's Broncos offense is about these same ideas for Wilson....it isn't going to work. Russ isn't a 3 step drop back and fire QB. Seattle tried to fit him into that mold and it isn't his strong suit. Maybe Russ comes around to it...but it took a while to break Rodgers of his habit of wanting to run around off script. Russ does that alot, and as he has gotten older...his sack % has gone up. In fact...it's gone up every single season he has played including last season when he had a staggering 10.7% sack rate. Only Justin Fields sack rate was worse.

    And lastly, the LaFluer/Hackett offense has in the past, called for alot of slants/short stuff over the middle....this is exactly the coldest area of the Wilson spray chart.

    It all suggest that this first year of Wilson/Hackett might not be the runaway success that everyone thinks it will be.

    I'll take 3 separate 100 dollar bets RIGHT NOW...that Denver misses the playoffs.

  • #2
    STFU you inbred idiot

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by mray View Post
      STFU you inbred idiot
      100 bucks then?

      Comment


      • #4
        I'll take 100 of that.

        Comment


        • #5
          I'm always willing to throw some coin on my Broncos, even as an act of faith.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by cutthemdown View Post
            I'm always willing to throw some coin on my Broncos, even as an act of faith.
            Just to confirm then....you are good for the 100 dollar bet?

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            • #7
              Who's holding the money for us?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                Just to confirm then....you are good for the 100 dollar bet?
                Yep, that's what the man said.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                  Just to confirm then....you are good for the 100 dollar bet?
                  I should have thrown in that 10-6 or better, or making the playoffs suffices for my win. It's a tough division and Russel could work out and the Broncos could still miss the playoffs......but **** it I'll take your bet.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by cutthemdown View Post
                    Who's holding the money for us?
                    Many here will confirm that I pay up when I lose. I trust you'll do the same. I've never had anyone here that I've bet with fail to pay.

                    Comment


                    • BowlenBall
                      BowlenBall commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I'll vouch for Zerovoltz -- he's a Chiefs fan, but he's a good dude nonetheless!

                    • qbronco
                      qbronco commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I can also vouch that Zero pays his bets.

                    • The1percentKid
                      The1percentKid commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I can as well. He pays his bets up.

                  • #11
                    Why did you write a diatribe about Hackett-Wilson, then call for an unrelated bet? There are 100 reasons we might miss the playoffs including a defensive drop off, tough division, tough 6 game finish, etc..

                    Why isn’t your bet about Wilson’s performance if that was the gist of your novel? Just asking for a friend that enjoys logic.

                    Comment


                    • cutthemdown
                      cutthemdown commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I agree, but I said **** it. It's only 100 bucks.

                  • #12
                    Originally posted by cmhargrove View Post
                    Why did you write a diatribe about Hackett-Wilson, then call for an unrelated bet? There are 100 reasons we might miss the playoffs including a defensive drop off, tough division, tough 6 game finish, etc..

                    Why isn’t your bet about Wilson’s performance if that was the gist of your novel? Just asking for a friend that enjoys logic.
                    this is a fair question......you care to concoct some sort of Wilson specific bet?

                    Comment


                    • #13
                      Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                      Many here will confirm that I pay up when I lose. I trust you'll do the same. I've never had anyone here that I've bet with fail to pay.
                      I’m pretty sure you never sent me my signed $1.00 bill saying you were completely wrong about Joe Flacco. I’m pretty sure I sent the details, sent my address and everything. You lost, no signed $1.00.

                      Of course this was on the Omane so I can’t dig it up, but you never paid your debt.

                      Comment


                      • #14
                        Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                        this is a fair question......you care to concoct some sort of Wilson specific bet?
                        Sure, I’m listening. I believe they are tailoring a new offense to Russels skill set, so I disagree. I’d bet on that concept

                        Comment


                        • #15
                          Originally posted by cmhargrove View Post

                          I’m pretty sure you never sent me my signed $1.00 bill saying you were completely wrong about Joe Flacco. I’m pretty sure I sent the details, sent my address and everything. You lost, no signed $1.00.

                          Of course this was on the Omane so I can’t dig it up, but you never paid your debt.
                          Oh hell. I knew I didn't send that to someone...and forgot who and then the mane shut down and I forgot about it completely. DM me your info. I have the 1 dollar that I set aside just for this purpose ready to do

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                          • #16
                            Originally posted by cmhargrove View Post

                            Sure, I’m listening. I believe they are tailoring a new offense to Russels skill set, so I disagree. I’d bet on that concept
                            OK...how about something like this....

                            Russ will be WORSE on at least 3 out of 4 of YPA, TD%, Sac% and QB Rating. Thoughts?

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                            • #17
                              tldr

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                              • #18
                                Originally posted by Roh View Post
                                tldr
                                T. Too
                                L. Logical
                                D. Didn't
                                R. Respond

                                ?

                                Comment


                                • #19
                                  My gut feeling is that Hacket won't turn this thing around easily and quickly. Not sure why but just have that feeling. Paton and Russ are winners though, so broncos have that going for them over the long haul.

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                                  • #20
                                    I doubt Wilson won't fit Hackett's scheme but making the playoffs in this division is a more complex event that will depend on many other factors. Hackett was so excited to have Wilson, he even mentioned there was no need to watch his tape when the trade possibility came up. I'm pretty sure he will build the passing game based on what Wilson does best and finding what works for a QB with 292 passing TDs should not be a problem.

                                    WIlson is such a film rat that I'd be surprised if he has not studied how Aaron Rodgers adapted to LaFleur's offense.

                                    However, when you have a division with Mahomes/Reid, Herbert/Lombardi, Carr/McDaniels and Wilson/Hackett, we will probably see playoff-caliber teams knock each other out. So Wilson might do just fine in Hackett's system, run a prolific offense and still have to scratch and claw for a wild card. With so many quality QBs and offensive minds in the AFC West, we will have to see which defense comes out on top, plus health of the roster, clutch moments, game management.

                                    Comment


                                    • #21
                                      Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                                      T. Too
                                      L. Logical
                                      D. Didn't
                                      R. Respond

                                      ?
                                      Lock:

                                      Timing (route failures)
                                      Likely
                                      Doomed
                                      Return?

                                      Paxton:

                                      The
                                      League
                                      Dungeonmaster...
                                      Right?

                                      Wilson:

                                      Totally
                                      Love
                                      Denver.
                                      -Russ- ?

                                      Mahomes:

                                      The
                                      Little
                                      Dancer
                                      Retreated?

                                      Elway the GM:

                                      Tall
                                      Losers
                                      Drafted
                                      Round1&2

                                      Elway the QB:

                                      The
                                      Leader
                                      Denver
                                      Remembers

                                      Watson:

                                      Tities
                                      Love
                                      D
                                      Rubs?

                                      Rodgers:

                                      Titles (mean)
                                      Less
                                      Dan (being)
                                      Rich?






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                                      • #22
                                        Originally posted by uplink View Post
                                        My gut feeling is that Hacket won't turn this thing around easily and quickly. Not sure why but just have that feeling. Paton and Russ are winners though, so broncos have that going for them over the long haul.
                                        Even if I wasn't a Chiefs fan...I might be inclined to pump the brakes on the hype short term. Russ is clearly a major addition at QB. I THINK Hackett is an upgrade at HC... It's the staff he's put together that makes me think this thing will take some time to get up and running. Hackett being a first time HC...also brining in first time OC and DC...I'm not saying that's even bad or good....but I am saying that it will take those guys all some time to find their footing, get to know the players and get some chemistry going. Thats a lot to expect in my opinion. I think it's viable long term...and other than the inevitable bump in the road that Russ' contract is going to cause...it's something they all know heading down the road. They can plan around that.

                                        Back to all the new coaches....I can't think of a time when a team brought in a first time HC, with a first time OC and first time DC and a new QB either drafted or veteran, who is also new to the team all in the same year. Teams hire coaches and then draft or sign a new QB fairly often...but frankly the only time I can come up with off the top of my head that is close is Denver....when they hired Fangio, and had Scangarello as OC. Donatell was an experienced DC..and Fangio was the de facto DC anyhow..so even that isn't the same as 2022.

                                        I'd even give ALL this new stuff somewhat better odds IF I thought the O line was solid. I think if you breaking in brand new coaches, and a QB (good though he may be) that is new to the team and everyone is trying to get up to speek, that at least with a solid, reliable line, you get some margin for error. I think O line is the weakest part of the Denver roster. I think 10 wins would be quite an accomplishment.

                                        PS (I am hitting that UNDER on Denver 10.5 wins HARD)

                                        Comment


                                        • #23
                                          Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

                                          Even if I wasn't a Chiefs fan...I might be inclined to pump the brakes on the hype short term. Russ is clearly a major addition at QB. I THINK Hackett is an upgrade at HC... It's the staff he's put together that makes me think this thing will take some time to get up and running. Hackett being a first time HC...also brining in first time OC and DC...I'm not saying that's even bad or good....but I am saying that it will take those guys all some time to find their footing, get to know the players and get some chemistry going. Thats a lot to expect in my opinion. I think it's viable long term...and other than the inevitable bump in the road that Russ' contract is going to cause...it's something they all know heading down the road. They can plan around that.

                                          Back to all the new coaches....I can't think of a time when a team brought in a first time HC, with a first time OC and first time DC and a new QB either drafted or veteran, who is also new to the team all in the same year. Teams hire coaches and then draft or sign a new QB fairly often...but frankly the only time I can come up with off the top of my head that is close is Denver....when they hired Fangio, and had Scangarello as OC. Donatell was an experienced DC..and Fangio was the de facto DC anyhow..so even that isn't the same as 2022.

                                          I'd even give ALL this new stuff somewhat better odds IF I thought the O line was solid. I think if you breaking in brand new coaches, and a QB (good though he may be) that is new to the team and everyone is trying to get up to speek, that at least with a solid, reliable line, you get some margin for error. I think O line is the weakest part of the Denver roster. I think 10 wins would be quite an accomplishment.

                                          PS (I am hitting that UNDER on Denver 10.5 wins HARD)
                                          Unfortunately, I think your analysis here is pretty spot-on.

                                          The coaching staff and the O-line are the biggest question marks right now, and we have no idea how they'll perform until the bullets start flying. It's also likely that there will plenty of new coach / new quarterback / new scheme kinks that will take several games to iron out.

                                          11 or more wins is extremely unlikely.
                                          ​​​​​​​
                                          10 wins is the benchmark (and the most likely outcome, I think) -- but that's not a given, considering the strength of the AFC West and having to play the NFC West, to boot.

                                          9 wins would be disappointing -- but not if we got in to the playoffs with that record (two 9-win teams made it in 2021)

                                          8 wins would be an abject failure.

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                                          • #24
                                            19 and 0, baby! (W.P.)

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                                            • #25
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