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  • True value of NFL QB

    Broncos will need to pay Wilson soon. Chiefs has to begin losing players because of Mahomes contract. Packers have had this issue, etc.

    One of the most comprehensive articles I’ve seen. Good for discussion.
    Quarterbacks have never cost more, and in today's NFL, the league must reckon with the value of the game's paramount position.

  • #2
    A few points from the article:

    Quarterback Cap Percentage


    No team has ever won the Super Bowl by paying their starting quarterback over 15% of the salary cap. The closest was Matt Ryan in 2016; he made precisely 15 percent and lost. In the past 12 seasons (going back to 2010, the start of the passing boom), no team has won the Super Bowl paying their quarterback more than 12.2 percent of their annual cap.

    Signing one of the most reprehensible players in the league aside, when you look at everything the Browns gave up and how much they’re going to be paying Watson after the 2022 season, will they be able to win a Super Bowl? Unfortunately, unless they do it this season, the answer is no.

    Not only did Cleveland give up too much (three first-round picks, a third, and two fourths), but they doubled down by giving him the highest guaranteed contract in NFL history. As a result, the Browns will have Deshaun Watson at a bargain price of $10 million this season (4.6% of the cap) before his contract balloons to an astronomical $46 million per season (24.4% of the cap).

    The Russell Wilson era Seahawks are a perfect example of this; With Wilson on his rookie contract, he made two Super Bowls, winning one. Then, he signed a new contract in 2016 that paid him 13.5 percent of the team’s salary on average. Since then, the Seahawks have missed the playoffs twice and never made it past the second round.

    That’s not Russ’ fault, the whole team got worse, and while Russ is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he’s not good enough to make up for the number of roster holes that inevitably followed. I understand that other factors played into the diminishing roster, such as a poor draft record, injuries, retirements, etc. Still, all those holes become easier to plug when you have flexibility.

    It’s not just the Seahawks, either. For example, when the Green Bay Packers won with Aaron Rodgers, he only accounted for around six percent of their cap space. Drew Brees’ cap was at 8.7 percent when the Saints won.

    Comment


    • #3
      Great read, thanx for sharing

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by OBF1 View Post
        Great read, thanx for sharing
        Quite comprehensive, and very relevant as we look at signing RW to a long term deal.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Shellback88 View Post
          A few points from the article:

          Quarterback Cap Percentage


          No team has ever won the Super Bowl by paying their starting quarterback over 15% of the salary cap. The closest was Matt Ryan in 2016; he made precisely 15 percent and lost. In the past 12 seasons (going back to 2010, the start of the passing boom), no team has won the Super Bowl paying their quarterback more than 12.2 percent of their annual cap.

          Signing one of the most reprehensible players in the league aside, when you look at everything the Browns gave up and how much they’re going to be paying Watson after the 2022 season, will they be able to win a Super Bowl? Unfortunately, unless they do it this season, the answer is no.

          Not only did Cleveland give up too much (three first-round picks, a third, and two fourths), but they doubled down by giving him the highest guaranteed contract in NFL history. As a result, the Browns will have Deshaun Watson at a bargain price of $10 million this season (4.6% of the cap) before his contract balloons to an astronomical $46 million per season (24.4% of the cap).

          The Russell Wilson era Seahawks are a perfect example of this; With Wilson on his rookie contract, he made two Super Bowls, winning one. Then, he signed a new contract in 2016 that paid him 13.5 percent of the team’s salary on average. Since then, the Seahawks have missed the playoffs twice and never made it past the second round.

          That’s not Russ’ fault, the whole team got worse, and while Russ is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he’s not good enough to make up for the number of roster holes that inevitably followed. I understand that other factors played into the diminishing roster, such as a poor draft record, injuries, retirements, etc. Still, all those holes become easier to plug when you have flexibility.

          It’s not just the Seahawks, either. For example, when the Green Bay Packers won with Aaron Rodgers, he only accounted for around six percent of their cap space. Drew Brees’ cap was at 8.7 percent when the Saints won.
          Manning was always among highest paid QB's and went to 4 SBs and won 2. Didn't John always account the most of our cap even way back?

          I agree it is easier to win when you have a guy like Brady willing to take less so you can sign a couple big time FA's but don't think it is impossible if the rest of the team is young and on their rookie deals much like we are. It is when you have 3 guys or more making huge money like the chefs had last year when it gets hard which is why they moved the childbeater and got a stockpile of picks. With that haul and if they draft well they will be able to keep mmmhommes happy and sign some guys in a year or 2 after they lose Clarke and Kelce's big deals, IF they hit on draft picks. I wouldn't call Hardman and CEH great 1st round picks even if they were at the end of the draft. If they didn't have to pay Hill last year they could have signed a decent CB or 2 which probably would have helped them more.

          Comment


          • #6
            They are damn expensive!

            That is all.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by KranzDictum View Post

              Manning was always among highest paid QB's and went to 4 SBs and won 2. Didn't John always account the most of our cap even way back?

              I agree it is easier to win when you have a guy like Brady willing to take less so you can sign a couple big time FA's but don't think it is impossible if the rest of the team is young and on their rookie deals much like we are. It is when you have 3 guys or more making huge money like the chefs had last year when it gets hard which is why they moved the childbeater and got a stockpile of picks. With that haul and if they draft well they will be able to keep mmmhommes happy and sign some guys in a year or 2 after they lose Clarke and Kelce's big deals, IF they hit on draft picks. I wouldn't call Hardman and CEH great 1st round picks even if they were at the end of the draft. If they didn't have to pay Hill last year they could have signed a decent CB or 2 which probably would have helped them more.
              Drafting well is imperative. It’s how you replenish talent at lower $
              Last edited by Shellback88; 04-28-2022, 10:19 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Shellback88 View Post

                Quite comprehensive, and very relevant as we look at signing RW to a long term deal.
                I'd rather have an affordable, quality QB like Drew Lock at a great price. Wilson is starting to pile on some miles on those legs.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Joe Isuzu View Post

                  I'd rather have an affordable, quality QB like Drew Lock at a great price. Wilson is starting to pile on some miles on those legs.
                  I think we all wanted Drew to work out, theres just zero evidence he can lead a winning team in the NFL. He hasn’t always gotten a “fair shake,” but has managed to crumble when he has.

                  IMO - his absolute ceiling is a Kirk Cousins type of player, but Kirk fought through every bit of adversity (and the depth chart) to pry the starting job away. Drew hasn’t yet shown that type of fortitude - mostly just caves instead of fighting through adversity.

                  I still hold out hope for Drew but I believe it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a career backup.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KranzDictum View Post

                    Manning was always among highest paid QB's and went to 4 SBs and won 2. Didn't John always account the most of our cap even way back?

                    I agree it is easier to win when you have a guy like Brady willing to take less so you can sign a couple big time FA's but don't think it is impossible if the rest of the team is young and on their rookie deals much like we are. It is when you have 3 guys or more making huge money like the chefs had last year when it gets hard which is why they moved the childbeater and got a stockpile of picks. With that haul and if they draft well they will be able to keep mmmhommes happy and sign some guys in a year or 2 after they lose Clarke and Kelce's big deals, IF they hit on draft picks. I wouldn't call Hardman and CEH great 1st round picks even if they were at the end of the draft. If they didn't have to pay Hill last year they could have signed a decent CB or 2 which probably would have helped them more.
                    I wouldn't call Hardman a great 1st round pick either,but he was a solid 2nd rounder who was starting to turn it on towards the 2nd of last season, and he's an excellent kick returner. The juries still out on CEH. He's been a solid RB when he's healthy, but he seems to have issues with that. If he misses significant time this season I'll be the first to call him a bust.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Joe Isuzu View Post

                      I'd rather have an affordable, quality QB like Drew Lock at a great price. Wilson is starting to pile on some miles on those legs.
                      I'd rather have a quality starting QB than a backup level QB.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Shellback88 View Post
                        Drafting well is imperative. It’s how you replenish talent at lower $

                        Exactly. Face it, you're gonna have to pay for a top-flight QB. Your draft day accuracy and the timing of your transactions are key to replacing and replenishing the affordable end of your salary cap. Given his age, three 1st, a 3rd and two 4th's isn't too bad a trade for Deshaun Watson, as long as his girl-grabbing days are behind him. But the Browns blew it with his salary - he's in no position to demand such gaudy numbers, how about some creative incentives instead?

                        The tough calls, the toughest calls, are when you're lucky enough to draft an NFL-ready QB like Joe Burrow. After three years he's proven himself - to say the least. Can a GM pay him his rookie wage for five years and still look at himself in the mirror? If one can, it's probably the one in Cincinnati.



                        Elway haters: If you're still harping with your Elway-hate, check this out:

                        Originally posted by Fansided
                        Trading up to draft a quarterback has become a common occurrence, despite the fact it only rarely works out. Of the 14 quarterbacks teams traded up to draft between 2012 and 2020, only six or seven (depending on Carson Wentz) turned out to be any good, and only three played through a second contract with the team that drafted them (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and likely Lamar Jackson). Again - only THREE of 14 quarterbacks drafted in round one by teams trading up for them played through two contracts.

                        It doesn’t get any better the further you go back: Rewinding to 1998-2011, 12 more QBs can be added to the mix (Gabbert, Tebow, Sanchez, Freeman, Flacco, Quinn, Cutler, Campbell, Losman, Boller, Vick, Leaf). Only three of these guys turned out to be even above-average (Flacco, Cutler, and Vick), and none became the player the team that drafted them hoped for.
                        LINK

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                        • #13
                          Seattle has been one of the worst drafting teams this past decade. Lots of busts

                          thats one area I trust Paton more. Making solid draft choices to help build around Russ. We’ll need low cost rookies and other young players to contribute when most of our cap is tied to Russ

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BroncoBuff View Post


                            Exactly. Face it, you're gonna have to pay for a top-flight QB. Your draft day accuracy and the timing of your transactions are key to replacing and replenishing the affordable end of your salary cap. Given his age, three 1st, a 3rd and two 4th's isn't too bad a trade for Deshaun Watson, as long as his girl-grabbing days are behind him. But the Browns blew it with his salary - he's in no position to demand such gaudy numbers, how about some creative incentives instead?

                            The tough calls, the toughest calls, are when you're lucky enough to draft an NFL-ready QB like Joe Burrow. After three years he's proven himself - to say the least. Can a GM pay him his rookie wage for five years and still look at himself in the mirror? If one can, it's probably the one in Cincinnati.



                            Elway haters: If you're still harping with your Elway-hate, check this out:


                            LINK
                            You agree about “drafting well” then call out Elway haters…..lmao. The guy who wastes 1st round picks(as well as all rounds) on trash….tell me how the Shane Rays of the football world helped this team over his tenure….

                            Elway literally isn’t the GM anymore because he sucked at drafting…once Manning’s FA attraction left Elway was toast. From draft picks to coach picks to FA picks….he went from GM to cheerleader.

                            there’s no recovering from drafting a CB that admitted he hates running backwards when Desmond King was on the board. Elway lost his position because he couldn’t do it. That’s facts.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Joe Isuzu View Post

                              I'd rather have an affordable, quality QB like Drew Lock at a great price. Wilson is starting to pile on some miles on those legs.
                              The title of this thread is “True value of NFL QB.” Come chat with us when your team has one…..again!

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by The1percentKid View Post
                                You agree about “drafting well” then call out Elway haters…..lmao. The guy who wastes 1st round picks(as well as all rounds) on trash….tell me how the Shane Rays of the football world helped this team over his tenure….
                                The drafting didn't seem too great, but those numbers above kinda open your eyes to what a carzy crapshoot the draft really is.

                                I'd like to find some draft-grading formula that scores over several years to see what it might reveal.


                                Originally posted by 1purse-cent
                                Elway literally isn’t the GM anymore because he sucked at drafting … once Manning’s FA attraction left Elway was toast.
                                Actually, your statement in bold is categorically, factually, historically wrong.

                                Elways greatest triumph, his crowning glory for which somebody oughtta write a book, came in 2015 - AFTER .Manning's skills fell off a steep cliff wIthout warning. In just 9 and-a-half games that season, Manning finished 2nd in the League in interceptions (Bortles), and was benched for the first time since at least high school (if then). In just 9 and-a-half games!

                                The amazing part was the team that Elway built those first 4 years (and with the exception of Demaryiuis, it was ALL his team), the amazing part was that team was strong enough to shake off a devastating in-season loss like Peyton Manning, and roll to the Lombardi Trophy.


                                The QB merry-go-round that followed, plus Vance Joseph, that's what doomed him as GM (and we know Elway left on his own after seeing Ellis wrap up the Bowlen girls' auditions to take over the team).

                                Sometimes it's mostly luck ... e.g.: George Paton skipped over Mac Jones, but before another QB merry-go-round could get going, and guys like you would rail on him for picking Surtain instead of Jones, ... ring ring ring .... John Schneider on the line!

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Elway was not good at drafting and most free agent decisions (outside the glory days of Talib, Manning, Ware, etc.) were bad signings. I give him credit for luring Manning here (he did play a big part in that) and getting a group of guys committed to winning to bring Denver a championship and two Super Bowl appearances in that time frame. After Manning was gone, the wheels fell off and it was one bad decision after another.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by Requiem View Post
                                    Elway was not good at drafting and most free agent decisions (outside the glory days of Talib, Manning, Ware, etc.) were bad signings. I give him credit for luring Manning here (he did play a big part in that) and getting a group of guys committed to winning to bring Denver a championship and two Super Bowl appearances in that time frame. After Manning was gone, the wheels fell off and it was one bad decision after another.
                                    i think Lamar is the only Qb drafted 20-32 via a trade up worth a damn. all the others through time are turds.

                                    elway took the biggest turd of all

                                    i wish Jerry would have saved Elway from himself


                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by ceh View Post

                                      i think Lamar is the only Qb drafted 20-32 via a trade up worth a damn. all the others through time are turds.

                                      elway took the biggest turd of all

                                      i wish Jerry would have saved Elway from himself

                                      I was a big fan of Jackson.

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        forget winning the super bowl for a minute

                                        regardless of contract there are maybe 8 QBs who year in year out give their team a chance to win the super bowl.

                                        Russell Wilson is one of those QBs.

                                        that’s the key for me.

                                        too many fluke things have to happen to win the super bowl but to have a legit chance every year is what you want





                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by ceh View Post
                                          forget winning the super bowl for a minute

                                          regardless of contract there are maybe 8 QBs who year in year out give their team a chance to win the super bowl.

                                          Russell Wilson is one of those QBs who can ride the coat tails of a truly great defense and RB. that’s the key for me.

                                          too many fluke things have to happen to win the super bowl but to have a legit chance every year is what you want
                                          Fixed it for you pal! Maybe your team should have stayed the course with Mr. Fangio. He seemed like the right kinda guy that could put together just the sort of defense Wilson needs to win a Lombardi trophy!

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by Joe Isuzu View Post

                                            Fixed it for you pal! Maybe your team should have stayed the course with Mr. Fangio. He seemed like the right kinda guy that could put together just the sort of defense Wilson needs to win a Lombardi trophy!
                                            Fangio does not have a great D.
                                            that dude aims for stats and not wins.
                                            ​​​​​​Anyone that uses Von Miller as a coverage guy rather than a rusher is a freaking idiot. Deny that.

                                            PS - Isuzu in Sioux Language means literally "testicles mouth"

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by Old Coyote View Post

                                              Fangio does not have a great D.
                                              that dude aims for stats and not wins.
                                              ​​​​​​Anyone that uses Von Miller as a coverage guy rather than a rusher is a freaking idiot. Deny that.

                                              PS - Isuzu in Sioux Language means literally "testicles mouth"
                                              Buddy, would it stand to reason that if Mr. Fangio aims for stats, that he would want Von Miller rushing the passer? Sacks are glamourous, but Fangio actually produced when it came to the number that matters most on defense. Points allowed. It seems like Fangio was using Von Miller quite effectively if it led to having so few points scored. Maybe Mr. Fangio cared about exactly the right things that mattered on defense.

                                              PS - No wonder we couldn't sell any cars in South Dakota!

                                              Comment


                                              • Old Coyote
                                                Old Coyote commented
                                                Editing a comment
                                                Nope. Fangios scheme may end in less points for the other team vs the median. But he also can't close games with his D schemes. So he gets good numbers for losses.

                                                Think of it this way... Von Miller is way better of an edge rusher than a cover LB. Before Fangio he and Chubb combined for 22 sacks. Once Fangio was in charge millers sack numbers went off a cliff. The Rams proved that Miller effects the game if given designed rushes. Fangio would rather cover a guy in the 6 yards area than attack QBs. On the final drive of the game for the other team, they would always score against Fangio. He is an idiot.

                                                Also "suzuki" means "the testicles" in Sioux.
                                                So that make doesn't sell well in Minnesota or the Dakota's either.

                                              • RockyMountainOyster
                                                RockyMountainOyster commented
                                                Editing a comment
                                                Yet Coloradoans munch on testicles. Go figure.

                                            • #24
                                              As others have mentioned in above posts, once you have your franchise QB set and have to pay him 20% of the cap, you absolutely have to draft well and not rely on bringing in FAs. You have to draft well in the bottom of the rounds. Moreover, you have to let some players go via FA because you can't afford to pay them and in return you should get comp picks.

                                              I like Paton's idea of having at least 10 picks in every draft thus giving a team more opportunity to score on those picks. Under Elway the team didn't draft great in the 2nd and 3rd rounds but Elway did manage to fine some good players in the later rounds like Woodyard and Trevathan. Also, doing well when signing UDFAs is paramount too as the Broncos have done good at that in the past.

                                              Fact is, I don't care where in the draft a good player is drafted. Trevathan was drafted in the 6th round, who cares that he was drafted in the 6th round? Point is he was drafted. Paton is going to have to keep the team competitive by finding good players all over the draft. First round. Second round. Third round, etc. He's gonna have have at least 10 picks in each draft and bank on his ability to find a few starters each and every draft. If Paton can do this, the Broncos will be competitive. If he can't, the Broncos will be right where Seattle has been for the past 5 seasons.

                                              Comment


                                              • #25
                                                Originally posted by Old Coyote View Post

                                                Fangio does not have a great D.
                                                that dude aims for stats and not wins.
                                                ​​​​​​Anyone that uses Von Miller as a coverage guy rather than a rusher is a freaking idiot. Deny that.

                                                PS - Isuzu in Sioux Language means literally "testicles mouth"
                                                You are literally full of shit in any language,

                                                Comment


                                                • Old Coyote
                                                  Old Coyote commented
                                                  Editing a comment
                                                  And you are low class white trash in any language.
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