If you knew nothing about history and were dropped into this political moment, you’d think that the culture war, especially around gender and sexuality, was nothing but a winner for the American right. Given how aggressive Republicans are about it — in the media, in legislation and in the courts — surely their values must dominate our society, with public opinion firmly on their side.

In fact, the opposite is true: The entire history of the culture war is one of conservative loss, retreat and retrenchment. That’s no less true today than it ever was, even as the political salience of the culture war waxes and wanes.

Right now — and likely for the next election or two — we’re in a particularly intense phase of the cycle, in which conservatives become acutely aware not only that they’re losing but that they’re certain to lose even more in the future. But they also know that the fear that inevitable future inspires among their supporters can be mobilized into short-term political victory.

Consider new polling data from the Public Religion Research Institute on LGBTQ rights. For some time, PRRI has asking Americans about same-sex marriage, laws protecting LGBTQ people from discrimination, and allowing businesses to refuse service to LGBTQ people because of their religious beliefs.

The top-line results could hardly be clearer: In the latest data, 68 percent of Americans support same-sex marriage, 79 percent support protections against discrimination, and 66 percent oppose allowing service refusals. In every case, the liberal position has grown steadily more popular over time.

The same is true among almost every political, religious, demographic and geographic subgroup. In the past few years, some have moved a tiny bit in the liberal direction while others have moved more substantially.

Even if there’s still opposition to LGBTQ rights among conservatives, that opposition is declining over time. In 2014, 35 percent of Republicans supported same-sex marriage, while in 2021, 48 percent did.

But to engineer a political backlash, you don’t actually need to win converts to your cause. Often, all you need is to persuade the people who haven’t changed their minds as the world changes around them to get more upset.

Which is what we’re seeing right now. Particularly at the state level, Republicans have successfully convinced their base that their entire way of life is under dire threat from a trans girl who wants to play on her middle school softball team or from the books that are sitting in school libraries.

They’ve successfully translated that anger into a wave of often terrifying legislation, targeting trans kids and their families and censoring classroom discussions that might acknowledge the existence of gay people.

They also have a comprehensive legal strategy involving a steady stream of cases, aimed at a friendly Supreme Court, meant to expand the rights of religious people — almost always conservative Christians — and have the government give them benefits and accommodations and excuse them from anti-discrimination laws.

And they have a conservative media that devotes a good deal of its time to telling their supporters that they are victims of not only grand conspiracies but a world that increasingly rejects their values. And the appropriate response is rage.

So where does this go from here? A recent iteration of this cycle of conservative loss and retrenchment is illuminating. Before the 2004 election, the issue of same-sex marriage became increasingly salient when Gavin Newsom, then mayor of San Francisco, ordered the city to issue marriage licenses to gay couples; not long after, Massachusetts became the first state to legalize it.

Republicans pounced, putting same-sex marriage at the top of the political agenda. That year, 11 states held referendums to outlaw same-sex marriage; all 11 passed. There was talk of a constitutional amendment, and Republicans were positively blissful about the political benefit they reaped by activating what everyone started calling “values voters” (as though being against equality is a “value” while favoring equality is just an opinion).

Yet their victory was temporary. The Supreme Court mandated marriage equality in 2015. None of the societal breakdown conservatives predicted came to pass once gay couples were allowed to marry. It’s barely controversial anymore. Republican politicians may still oppose it, but they know it’s a battle they’ve lost for all time.

Today, few conservatives would claim that the same won’t happen on transgender rights or the other culture war fights they’re promoting. But in the short term, there is still advantage to be gained by stirring up as much anger as possible.

And ironically, it’s precisely because conservatives are losing the long-term argument that they can squeeze out wins in the short term. It’s the sense of being an outnumbered and oppressed minority that drives conservative anger, which can be mobilized into political action and translated to victory at the polls. That’s even more true in non-presidential elections, when much of the electorate doesn’t bother to vote.

So don’t be surprised if Republicans look at how they continue to lose the fight over public opinion on culture war issues and decide that it’s all the more urgent to deploy those issues this November and in 2024. If history is any guide, it could work. For a while, anyway.

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