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ODESSA 2023 Mock Draft Results

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  • #1

    ODESSA 2023 Mock Draft Results

    "ODESSA" means Old Dude's experimental scoring system analysis. 😎

    Here is the system (posted nearly a year ago) without the commentary:

    1. Exact Player Accuracy (a/k/a "Bullseye scoring")

    Mock drafters earn 1000 points for each “bullseye” pick. But then the total bonus is modified by applying the percentage of such picks to the total picks made by the mock drafter (rounding total down). The mock drafter must make at least 4 picks to qualify for this bonus.

    2. "Round Value" of players drafted.

    Mock drafters earn points for the round in which their pick was selected in the real draft.

    Player taken in Round 1 = 100 points
    Player taken in Round 2 = 75 points
    Player taken in Round 3 = 50 points
    Player taken in Round 4 = 30 points
    Player taken in Round 5 = 20 points
    Player taken in Round 6 = 15 points
    Player taken in Round 7 = 10 points​

    3. Relative Value Bonuses and Penalties.

    Any pick made by a Mock Drafter in Rounds 1-3 that goes in the real draft more than 10 spots ahead or behind of where the Drafter selected the player is worth a bonus or penalty of exactly 25 points. If the player goes more than 30 spots ahead or behind, the bonus or penalty increases to exactly 50 points.

    Any pick made by a Mock Drafter in Rounds 4-7 that goes in the real draft more than 20 spots ahead or behind is worth a bonus or penalty of exactly 10 points. If they go more than 40 spots ahead or behind, the bonus or penalty increases to exactly 20 points.

    4. Positional Accuracy.

    The scoring categories are:

    Defensive front 7
    Defensive Backfield
    Quarterback
    Offensive Line (including Long Snappers)
    Offensive “skill” (including RBs, WRs, TEs, FBs and KRs)
    Kickers or Punters.​

    Each time you match a position taken by the real team, it’s worth 5 bonus points. Multiple matches don’t accumulate. If one or more of your draft picks goes UDFA, you do not get to count those particular picks as qualifying for the positional bonus. Nor do UDFA picks count for this purpose.

    5. Handicaps.

    ​Your mock team's handicap is determined at the time that the draft order is frozen – not by what it looks like after the mock draft swings into action with trades and whatnot. To keep things simple, it looks only at your first two picks.

    First pick in top 10 = 0 bonus
    First pick at 11-32 = 3 points
    First pick in Round 2 = 25 points
    First pick in Round 3 = 75 points
    First pick in Round 4 or thereafter = 150 points

    Second pick in Round 1 = 0 bonus
    Second pick in Round 2 = 3 points
    Second pick in Round 3 = 25 points
    Second Pick in Round 4 or thereafter = 75 points

    6. UDFA Scoring

    Your UDFA is actually drafted, and by your team! You earn the Round Value for the round in which he’s taken (see section 2, above), plus 15 points. (note: this does not count in terms of either of the accuracy equations detailed above)
    Your UDFA is actually drafted, but by someone else: Round Value of the round in which he’s taken.
    Your UDFA goes undrafted but signed by your team! 6 points
    Your UDFA goes undrafted but is signed by some other team: 2 points.
    Your UDFA is undrafted and unsigned but is invited to anyone’s pro camp or try-out camp: 1 point.

    ​​
    Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 10:04 AM.
    Tags: None
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  • #2
    Scores for the “Bullseye” category.

    There were a total of 10 players in the mock draft who were drafted by the same teams in real life:

    Anthony Richardson, QB to the Colts.
    Drew Sanders, LB, to the Broncos.
    Tre'vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, to the Rams.
    Jordan Battle, S, to the Bengals.
    Isaiah McGuire, DE, to the Browns.
    Kendre Miller, RB, to the Saints.
    Tavius Robinson, ED, to the Ravens.
    Kobie Turner, DL, to the Rams.
    Tyler Lacy, DL, to the Jaguars.
    Jake Moody, K, to the 49ers.

    Applying the ODESSA scoring formula, these teams earned the following “exact player" points:

    LAR: 2 of 10 picks = 2,000 / 10 = 200.
    NO: 1 of 6 picks = 1,000 / 6 = 166.
    BAL: 1 of 7 picks = 1,000 / 6 = 142.
    CIN: 1 of 7 picks = 1,000 / 7 = 142.
    IND: 1 of 7 picks = 1,000 / 7 = 142.
    CLE: 1 of 8 picks = 1,000 / 8 = 125.
    JAX: 1 of 9 picks = 1,000 / 9 = 111.
    SF: 1 of 12 picks = 1,000 / 12 = 83.
    DEN: 1 of 3 picks = DNQ (minimum 4 picks required)

    ​
    Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:52 PM.
    • Likes 1

    Comment

    • #3
      ROUND VALUE and Relative Bonuses and Penalties.
      PLAYER (ROUND 1) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
      001 1-01 C.J. Stroud, QB CAR HOU @002 100 0
      002 1-02 Bryce Young, QB HOU CAR @001 100 0
      003 1-03 Will Anderson, ED ARI HOU @003 100 0
      004 1-04 Anthony Richardson, QB IND IND @004 100 0
      005 1-05 Tyree Wilson, ED SEA LV @007 100 0
      006 1-06 Christian Gonzalez, CB DET NE @017 100 -25
      007 1-07 Devon Witherspoon, CB LV SEA @005 100 0
      008 1-08 Jalen Carter, DL ATL PHI @009 100 0
      009 1-09 Peter Skoronski, OL CHI TEN @011 100 0
      010 1-10 Myles Murphy, DE PHI CIN @028 100 -25
      011 1-11 Joey Porter Jr., CB TEN PIT @032 75 -25
      012 1-12 Quentin Johnston, WR HOU LAC @021 100 0
      013 1-13 Paris Johnson Jr., OT NYJ AZI @006 100 0
      014 1-14 Broderick Jones, OT NE PIT @014 100 0
      015 1-15 Jordan Addison, WR GB MIN @023 100 0
      016 1-16 ​Will Levis, QB WAS TEN @033 75 -25
      017 1-17 Deonte Banks, CB PIT NYG @024 100 0
      018 1-18 ​Bryan Bresee, DL DET NO @029 100 -25
      019 1-19 Brian Branch, S TB DET @ 045 75 -25
      020 1-20 Lukas Van Ness, DE SEA GB @013 100 0
      021 1-21 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR LAC SEA @020 100 0
      022 1-22 Bijan Robinson, RB BAL ATL @008 100 +25
      023 1-23 Calijah Kancey, DL KC TB @019 100 0
      024 1-24 Darnell Washington, TE JAX PIT @093 50 -50
      025 1-25 Zay Flowers, WR NYG BAL @022 100 0
      026 1-26 Dalton Kincaid, TE DAL BUF @025 100 0
      027 1-27 Anton Harrison, OT BUF JAX @027 100 0
      028 1-28 Michael Mayer, TE CIN [email protected] 75 0
      029 1-29 Nolan Smith, ED/LB NO PHI @030 100 0
      030 1-30 Cam Smith, CB PHI MIA @051 75 -25
      031 1-31 Kelee Ringo, CB MIN PHI @105 30 -50
      ​
      Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:55 PM.

      Comment

      • #4
        ROUND VALUE and Relative Bonuses and Penalties
        PLAYER (ROUND 2) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
        032 2-01 Darnell Wright, OT TEN CHI @010 100 +25
        033 2-02 Isaiah Foskey, ED HOU NO @040 75 0
        034 2-03 Dawand Jones, OT ARI CLE @111 30 -50
        035 2-04 Jalin Hyatt, WR IND NYG @073 50 -50
        036 2-05 Daiyan Henley, LB LAR LAC @085 50 -50
        037 2-06 O'Cyrus Torrence, OG SEA BUF @059 75 -25
        038 2-07 Mazi Smith, DT LV DAL @026 100 +25
        039 2-08 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB CAR DET @012 100 +25
        040 2-09 B.J. Ojulari, DE/ED NO ARI @041 75 0
        041 2-10 Blake Freeland, OT TEN IND @106 30 -50
        042 2-11 Keeanu Benton, DT CLE PIT @049 75 0
        043 2-12 Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL NYJ IND @110 30 -50
        044 2-13 Trenton Simpson, LB ATL BAL @86 50 -50
        045 2-14 Antonio Johnson, S GB JAX @160 20 -50
        046 2-15 Emmanuel Forbes, CB DEN WAS @016 100 +25
        047 2-16 Zach Charbonnet, RB WAS SEA @052 75 0
        048 2-17 Luke Musgrave, TE DET GB @042 75 0
        049 2-18 Keion White, DE PIT NE @046 75 0
        050 2-19 Matthew Bergeron, OT TB ATL @038 75 +25
        051 2-20 Tyrique Stevenson, CB MIA CHI @056 75 0
        052 2-21 Will McDonald IV, ED/OLB NYG NYJ @015 100 +50
        053 2-22 Felix Anudike-Uzomah, ED CHI KC @031 100 +25
        054 2-23 Drew Sanders, LB DEN DEN @067 50 -25
        055 2-24 Tuli Tuipulotu, ED DET LAC @054 75 0
        056 2-25 Clark Phillips, CB JAX ATL @113 30 -50
        057 2-26 Joe Tippmann, C SEA NYJ @043 75 +25
        ​058 2-27 D.J. Turner, CB DAL CIN @060 75 0
        059 2-28 Jack Campbell, LB BUF DET @018 100 +50
        060 2-29 Derick Hall, DE/ED CIN SEA @037 75 +25
        061 2-30 Karl Brooks, DL CHI GB @179 15 -50
        062 2-31 John Michael Schmitz, C PHI NYG @057 75 0
        063 2-32 Josh Downs, WR NO IND @079 50 -25
        ​
        Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:56 PM.

        Comment

        • #5
          ROUND VALUE, etc.
          PLAYER (ROUND 3) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
          064 3-01 Julius Brents, CB CHI IND @044 75 +25
          065 3-02 Cody Mauch, OL HOU TB @048 75 +25
          066 3-03 Luke Wypler, C ARI CLE @190 15 -50
          067 3-04 Steve Avila, OG NE [email protected] 75 +50
          068 3-05 Tucker Kraft, TE LAC GB @078 50 0
          069 3-06 Tre'vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB LAR LAR @182 15 -50
          ​070 3-07 Sam LaPorta, TE LV DET @034 75 +50
          071 3-08 Tyler Scott, WR KC CHI @133 30 -50
          072 3-09 Marvin Mims, Jr., WR TEN DEN @063 75 0
          073 3-10 Andre Carter, ED HOU UDFA 0 -50
          074 3-11 Hendon Hooker, QB NYJ DET @068 50 0
          075 3-12 Andrew Vorhees, OL ATL BAL @229 10 -50
          076 3-13 Siaki Ika, DT GB CLE @098 50 -25
          077 3-14 Max Duggan, QB LAR LAC @239 10 -50
          078 3-15 Cedric Tillman, WR MIN CLE @074 50 0
          079 3-16 Sydney Brown, DB IND PHI @066 50 +25
          080 3-17 Gervon Dexter, DL NYG CHI @053 75 +25
          081 3-18 Zach Harrison, DE DET ATL @075 50 0
          082 3-19 Dylan Horton, ED TB HOU @109 30 -25
          083 3-20 Rashee Rice, WR SEA KC @055 75 +25
          084 3-21 Dorian Williams, LB MIA BUF @091 50 0
          085 3-22 Darius Rush, CB LAC IND @138 20 -50
          086 3-23 Tyjae Spears, RB BUF TEN @081 50 0
          087 3-24 Jayden Reed, WR NE GB @050 75 +50
          088 3-25 Devon Achane, RB JAX MIA @084 50 0
          089 3-26 Tyler Steen, OL PIT PHI @065 50 +50
          090 3-27 Byron Young, ED TEN LAR @077 50 +25
          091 3-28 Jaylon Jones, CB BAL [email protected] 10 -50
          092 3-29 Jordan Battle, S CIN CIN @095 50 0
          093 3-30 Kayshon Boutte, WR CAR NE @187 15 -50
          094 3-31 Tank Dell, WR PHI HOU @069 50 +25
          095 3-32 Chandler Zavala, OG MIN CAR @114 30 -25
          096 3-33 Deuce Vaughn, RB ARI DAL @212 15 -50
          097 3-34 Luke Schoonmaker, TE WAS DAL @058 75 +50
          098 3-35 Isaiah McGuire, DE CLE CLE @126 30 -25
          099 3-36 J. L. Skinner, S SF DEN @183 15 -50
          100 3-37 Emil E​kiyor, Jr, OG LV UDFA 0 -50
          101 3-38 K.J. Henry, ED SF WAS @137 20 -50
          102 3-39 Jonathan Mingo, WR SF [email protected] 75 +50
          ​
          Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:57 PM.

          Comment

          • #6
            ROUND VALUE, etc.
            PLAYER (Round 4) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
            103 4-01 A.T. Perry, WR CHI NO @195 15 -20
            104 4-02 Jammie Robinson, CB HOU CAR @145 20 -20
            105 4-03 Xavier Hutchinson, WR ARI HOU @205 15 -20
            106 4-04 Jaelyn Duncan, OT IND TEN @186 15 -20
            107 4-05 Yaya Diaby, ED NE TB @082 50 +10
            108 4-06 Jartavius 'Quan' Martin, CB NE WAS @047 75 +20
            109 4-07 Ji'Ayir Brown, S LV SF @087 50 +10
            110 4-08 Owen Pappoe, LB ATL ARI @168 20 -20
            111 4-09 Noah Sewell, LB CLE CHI @148 20 -10
            112 4-10 Zacch Pickens, DL NO CHI @064 50 +20
            113 4-11Trey Palmer, WR ATL TB @191 15 -20
            114 4-12 Henry To'oTo'o, LB CAR HOU @167 20 -20
            115 4-13 Jakorian Bennett, CB NYJ LV @104 30 0
            116 4-14 Mekhi Blackmon, CB GB MIN @102 50 0
            117 4-15 Brenton Strange, TE NE JAX @ 061 75 +20
            118 4-16 Andrei Iosivas, WR WAS CIN @206 15 -20
            ​119 4-17 Viliami Fehoko, ED MIN DAL @129 30 0
            120 4-18 Zack Kuntz, TE PIT NYJ @220 10 -20
            121 4-19 Colby Wooden, DL JAX GB @116 30 0
            122 4-20 Eli Ricks, CB KC UDFA 0 -20
            123 4-21 Nick Broeker, OL SEA BUF @230 10 -20
            124 4-22 Jaquelin Roy, DL BAL MIN @141 20 0
            125 4-23 Roschon Johnson, RB LAC CHI @115 30 0
            ​126 4-24 DeMarvion Overshown, LB CLE DAL @090 50 +10
            127 4-25 Wanya Morris, OT JAX KC @092 50 +10
            128 4-26 Carter Warren, OT KC NYJ @120 30 0
            129 4-27 Chase Brown, RB DAL CIN @163 20 -10
            130 4-28 Puka Nacua, WR BUF LAR @177 20 -20
            131 4-29 Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR CIN UDFA 0 -20
            132 4-30 Kyu Blu Kelly, CB CAR BAL @157 20 -10
            133 4-31 Tanner Mckee, QB CHI PHI @188 15 -20
            134 4-32 Cory Trice, CB NYG PIT @241 10 -20
            135 4-33 Ryan Hayes, OL IND MIA @238 10 -20
            ​
            Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:58 PM.

            Comment

            • #7
              ROUND VALUE, etc.
              PLAYER (ROUND 5) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
              136 5-01 Israel Abanikanda, RB CHI NYJ @143 20 0
              137 5-02 Nick Herbig, ED BAL PIT @132 30 0
              138 5-03 DeWayne McBride, RB IND MIN @222 10 -20
              139 5-04 Byron Young, DL LAC LV @070 50 +20
              140 5-05 Parker Washington, WR CLE JAX @185 15 +20
              141 5-06 Keondre Coburn, DT LV KC @194 15 -20
              142 5-07 Riley Moss, CB CLE DEN @083 50 +20
              143 5-08 Ricky Stromberg, C NYJ WAS @097 50 +20
              144 5-09 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB LV CLE @140 20 0
              145 5-10 Jarrett Patterson, C CAR HOU @201 15 -20
              146 5-11 Tank Bigsby, RB KC JAX @088 50 +20
              147 5-12 Jaren Hall, QB TEN MIN @164 20 0
              148 5-13 Olusegun Oluwatimi​, OL CHI SEA @154 20 0
              149 5-14 Garrett Williams, CB GB ARI @072 50 +20
              150 5-15 Ali Gaye, DE WAS UDFA 0 -20
              151 5-16 Mekhi Garner, CB SEA UDFA 0 -20
              152 5-17 Kendre Miller, RB NO NO @071 50 +20
              153 5-18 Braeden Daniels, G TB WAS @118 30 +10
              154 5-19 Michael Wilson, WR SEA ARI @094 50 +20
              155 5-20 Ivan Pace, LB DET UDFA 0 -20
              156 5-21 Nick Hampton, ED LAC LAR @161 20 0
              157 5-22 Tavius Robinson, ED BAL BAL @124 30 +10
              158 5-23 Cameron Mitchell, CB NE CLE @142 20 0
              159 5-24 Keaton Mitchell, RB ATL UDFA 0 -20
              160 5-25 Moro Ojomo, DL PIT PHI @249 10 -20
              161 5-26 Daniel Scott, S HOU IND @158 20 0
              162 5-27 Richard Gouraige, OL IND UDFA 0 -20
              163 5-28 Mike Morris, DL CIN SEA @151 20 0
              164 5-29 Terell Smith, CB SF CHI @165 20 0
              165 5-30 Juice Scruggs, IOL SF HOU @062 75 +20
              166 5-31 Christopher Smith, S KC LV @170 20 0
              167 5-32 Kobie Turner, DL LAR LAR @089 50 +20
              168 5-33 Brandon Hill, S ARI HOU @248 10 -20
              169 5-34 Zach Evans, RB DAL [email protected] 15 -20
              170 5-35 Jaxon Kirkland, OL GB UDFA 0 -20
              171 5-36 Starling Thomas V, CB LAR UDFA 0 -20
              172 5-37 Eric Gray, RB SEA NYG @172 20 0
              173 5-38 Jake Haener, QB SF NO @127 30 +20
              174 5-39 Atonio Mafi, OG LV NE @144 20 +10
              175 5-40 Josh Whyle, TE TB TEN @147 20 +10
              176 5-41 Nick Saldiveri, OL NE NO @103 30 +20
              177 5-42 Marte Mapu, S LAR NE @076 50 +20
              ​
              Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 07:59 PM.

              Comment

              • #8
                ROUND VALUE, etc.
                PLAYER (Round 6) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
                178 6-01 Yasir Abdullah, ED LAR JAX @136 20 +20
                179 6-02 Cameron Latu, TE HOU SF @102 50 +20
                180 6-03 B.J. Thompson, ED ARI KC @166 20 0
                181 6-04 Sean Tucker, RB TB UDFA 0 -20
                182 6-05 Jose Ramirez, ED LAR TB @196 15 0
                183 6-06 Jon Gaines, IOL DET ARI @122 30 +20
                184 6-07 Jay Ward, S NYG MIN @134 30 +20
                185 6-08 Jerrod Clark, DL JAX UDFA 0 -20
                186 6-09 Henry Bainivalu, IOL TEN UDFA 0 -20
                187 6-10 Kenny McIntosh, RB NE SEA @237 10 -20
                188 6-11 McClendon Curtis, OG HOU UDFA 0 -20
                189 6-12 Asim Richards, OT LAR DAL @169 20 0
                190 6-13 Ronnie Hickman, S CLE UDFA 0 -20
                191 6-14 Jordan McFadden, OT LAR LAC @156 20 +20
                ​192 6-15 Cameron Young, DL NE SEA @123 30 +20
                193 6-16 Rakim Jarrett, WR WAS UDFA 0 -20
                194 6-17 Aiden O’Connell, QB DET LV @135 30 +20
                195 6-18 Jake Andrews, C LAC NE @107 30 +20
                196 6-19 Kei'trell Clark CB TB ARI @180 15 0
                197 6-20 Brodric Martin, DL MIA DET @096 50 +20
                198 6-21 Elijah Higgins, WR SEA MIA @197 15 0
                199 6-22 Alex Forsyth, C NYG DEN @257 10 -20
                200 6-23 Anthony Johnson Jr., S LAC GB @242 10 -20
                201 6-24 Brenton Cox, ED HOU UDFA 0 -20
                202 6-25 Rejzohn Wright, CB JAX UDFA 0 -20
                203 6-26 Derius Davis, WR HOU LAC @125 30 +20
                204 6-27 ​Isaiah Bolden, CB LV [email protected] 10 -20
                205 6-28 Jalen Redmond, DL BUF UDFA 0 -20
                206 6-29 Stetson Bennett XVI, QB CIN LAR @128 30 +20
                207 6-30 Anfernee Orji, LB NYJ UDFA 0 -20
                208 6-31 Tyler Lacy, DL JAX JAX @130 30 +20
                209 6-32 Jake Witt, OT NE IND @235 10 -10
                ​210 6-33 Evan Hull, RB NE IND @176 20 +10
                ​211 6-34 SirVocea Dennis, LB MIN TB @153 20 +20
                212 6-35 Will Mallory, TE DAL IND @162 20 +20
                213 6-36 Charlie Jones, WR ARI CIN @131 30 +20
                214 6-37 Lonnie Phelps, ED LV UDFA 0 -20
                215 6-38 Mohamed Ibrahim, RB WAS UDFA 0 -20
                216 6-39 Warren McClendon, OT SF LAR @174 20 +20
                217 6-40 E.J. Jenkins, WR BAL UDFA 0 -20
                ​
                Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 08:00 PM.

                Comment

                • #9
                  ROUND VALUE, etc.
                  PLAYER (Round 7) Mock Team Drafted in Real Life ROUND VALUE Relative Value Bonus or Penalty
                  218 7-01 Mitchell Tinsley, WR CHI UDFA 0 -20
                  219 7-02 Brandon Joseph, S PHI UDFA 0 -10
                  220 7-03 Alex Palczewski, OL LV UDFA 0 -10
                  221 7-04 Davis Allen, TE NE LAR @175 20 +20
                  222 7-05 Jalen Moreno-Cropper, WR SF UDFA 0 -10
                  223 7-06 Anthony Johnson, CB SF GB @247 10 -10
                  224 7-07 Noah Daniels, CB ATL Not in draft 0 -10
                  225 7-08 Myles Brooks, CB ATL UDFA 0 -10
                  ​226 7-09 Dee Winters, LB JAX SF @216 15 0
                  227 7-10 Jake Moody, K SF SF @099 50 +20
                  228 7-11 Payne Durham, TE TEN TB @171 20 +20
                  229 7-12 Mohamoud Diabate, LB CLE UDFA 0 -10
                  230 7-13 Malik Cunningham, QB TB UDFA 0 -10
                  ​231 7-14 Isaiah Moore, LB LV UDFA 0 -10
                  232 7-15 Connor Galvin, OL GB UDFA 0 -10
                  233 7-16 Adrian Martinez, QB WAS UDFA 0 -10
                  234 7-17 Sidy Sow, OG PITT NE @117 30 +20
                  235 7-18 Robert Beal Jr., ED GB SF @173 20 +20
                  236 7-19 Anthony Bradford, OG NE SEA @108 30 +20
                  237 7-20 Jason Taylor II, S SEA LAR @234 10 0
                  238 7-21 Leonard Taylor, TE MIA UDFA 0 -10
                  239 7-22 T.J. Bass, IOL DEN UDFA 0 -10
                  240 7-23 Clayton Tune, QB NE ARI @139 20 +20
                  241 7-24 Jarrick Bernard-Converse, S PIT NYJ @204 15 +10
                  242 7-25 Jahleel Billingsley, TE GB UDFA 0 0
                  243 7-26 Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB BAL WAS @193 15 +20
                  244 7-27 Ochaun Mathis, ED DAL LAR @189 15 +20
                  245 7-28 Tyrus Wheat, ED NE UDFA 0 0
                  246 7-29 Dontayvion Wicks​, WR CIN GB @159 20 +20
                  247 7-30 Ventrell Miller, LB SF JAX @121 30 +20
                  248 7-31 Raiqwon O'Neal, OL PHI UDFA 0 0
                  249 7-32 Thomas Incoom, ED KC UDFA 0 0
                  250 7-33 Earl Bostic Jr., OT KC UDFA 0 0
                  251 7-34 Chamarri Conner, S NYJ KC @119 30 +20
                  252 7-35 Jack Podlesny, K TB UDFA 0 0
                  253 7-36 Jack Colletto, QB/FB/TE/LB SF UDFA 0 0
                  254 7-37 Deonte "D.J." Johnson, OLB/ED NYG CAR @080 50 +20
                  255 7-38 Chad Ryland, K DET NE @112 30 +20
                  256 7-39 Darrell Luter, CB NE SF @155 20 +20
                  257 7-40 Carrington Valentine, CB NO [email protected] 10 +10
                  258 7-41 Eku Leota, ED CHI UDFA 0 0
                  259 7-42 Joey Fisher, OT HOU UDFA 0 0
                  ​
                  Last edited by Old Dude; 04-29-2023, 08:00 PM.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Here are the "positional accuracy" scores:
                    TEAM POSITIONS DRAFTED BY REAL TEAM POSITIONS SUCCESSFULLY DRAFTED BY MOCK TEAM (did not go UDFA) SCORE
                    ARI OLx2, F7x3, DBx2, SK, QB F7x2, OLx2, SKx3, DB 30
                    ATL SK, OLx2, F7, DBx2 F7x3, OL, SKx2 15
                    BAL SK, F7x2, DB, OLx2 SKx2, DB, F7x3 20
                    BUF SKx2, OLx2, F7, DB OL, F7, SKx2 20
                    CAR QB, SK, F7, OL, DB QB, SKx2, F7, DB, OL 25
                    CHI OL, F7x4, DBx3, SKx2 OLx2, F7x2, DB, SKx2, QB 30
                    CIN F7, DBx3, SKx3, KP SKx2, F7x2, DB, QB 20
                    CLE SK, F7x2, OLx2, QB, DB, F7x4, SK 15
                    DAL F7x3, SKx3, OL, DB SKx4, DB, OL, F7 30
                    DEN SK, F7, DBx2, OL DB, F7 10
                    DET SKx3, F7x2, DB, QB, OL DB, F7x3, SK, OL, QB, KP 30
                    GB F7x3, SKx6, QB, KP, DBx2 SK, DBx3, F7x2 25
                    HOU QB, F7x2, OLx2, SKx2, DB QB, SKx3, F7, OL, DBx2 30
                    IND QB, DBx4, SKx3, OLx2, F7x2 QB, SKx2, DB, OLx2 30
                    JAX OL, SKx3, F7x5, DBx3, OL SKx2, DB, F7x3 30
                    KC F7x2, SK, OL, DBx3 F7, SKx2, OL, DB 20
                    LV F7x4, SKx2, DBx3, QB DBx3, F7, SK, OLx2, QB 30
                    LAC SKx2, F7x3, OL, QB SKx3, DBx2, F7x2, OL 25
                    LAR OLx2, F7x5, QB, SKx3, DBx2, KP F7x4, DBx2, QB, OLx2, SK 50
                    MIA DB, SKx2, OL DB, F7x2 5
                    MIN SKx2, DBx2, F7, QB DB, SK, OL, F7x2 15
                    NE DBx4, F7, OLx3, KPx2, SKx2 OLx5, SKx5, F7x2, DBx3, QB 45
                    NO F7x2, SKx2, OL, QB, DB F7x3, SKx2, DB 25
                    NYG DBx3, OL, SKx2, F7 SK, F7x3, DBx2, OL 25
                    NYJ F7x2, OLx2, SKx2, DB OLx2, F7, QB, DBx2 20
                    PHI F7x2, OL, DBx3, DB F7, DB, OL, SK 15
                    PIT OLx2, DBx2, F7x2, SK DBx2, OLx3, F7x3, SK 35
                    SF DBx2, KP, SKx3, F7x3 DBx2, F7x2, SK, QB, KP 30
                    SEA DBx2, SKx3, F7x2, OLx2 F7x2, OLx3, SKx4, DB 40
                    TB F7x4, OL, SKx2, DB DBx3, OLx3, F7, SK 20
                    TEN OLx2, QB, SKx2, DB, F7 DB, OLx2, SKx2, F7, QB 35
                    WAS DBx2, OLx2, F72, SK QB, SKx3 5
                    ​
                    Last edited by Old Dude; 04-30-2023, 03:24 PM.
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                    • #11
                      Here are the running ODESSA scores (sores?) prior to UDFA calculations. As you can see, Eddiemac took us all to school again. Keep in mind that I make mistakes, so feel more than free to check my math. (I didn't get to this age by being proud.)

                      Master Scoresheet (Pre-UDFA)
                      TEAM Handicap Bullseye Score* Round Value Score** Relative Value Bonuses & Penalties*** Positional Bonus Subtotal (pre-UDFA)
                      ARI 3 0 235 -190 30 78
                      ATL 3 0 195 -170 15 43
                      BAL 28 142 105 -25 20 270
                      BUF 6 0 270 +10 20 306
                      CAR 3 0 270 -75 25 223
                      CHI 3 0 360 -60 30 333
                      CIN 6 142 270 +25 20 463
                      CLE 50 125 240 -15 15 415
                      DAL 6 0 245 +10 30 291
                      DEN 100 DNQ 150 -10 10 250
                      DET 0 0 415 -10 30 435
                      GB 6 0 290 -65 25 256
                      HOU 0 0 470 -45 30 455
                      IND 3 142 225 -35 30 370
                      JAX 6 111 225 -110 30 262
                      KC 6 0 160 -50 20 136
                      LV 3 0 390 -35 30 388
                      LAC 6 0 300 +20 25 351
                      LAR 50 200 185 -40 50 445
                      MIA 50 0 175 +10 5 240
                      MIN 28 0 140 -55 15 128
                      NE 6 0 660 +250 45 961
                      NO 6 166 335 +25 25 557
                      NYG 6 0 375 +75 25 481
                      NYJ 6 0 290 -30 20 286
                      PHI 0 0 300 -35 15 280
                      PIT 6 0 280 +40 35 361
                      SF 100 83 345 +10 30 568
                      SEA 0 0 430 +5 40 475
                      TB 6 0 245 -35 20 236
                      TEN 6 0 370 -25 35 386
                      WAS 6 0 240 -65 5 186
                      * Formula is 1,000 points per same player actually taken, divided by total # of picks, rounded down.
                      ** Based on value of Round in which player is actually taken
                      *** Penalties and bonuses measured from point where player was mock-drafted.
                      ​
                      Last edited by Old Dude; 04-30-2023, 06:10 PM.

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                      • #12
                        FINAL (sorta) RESULTS OF THE 2023 Orange Huddle Mock Draft (using ODESSA system)
                        (there are 6 or 7 UDFAs still unsigned or otherwise unaccounted for, but I’m not going to wait on them)


                        EDDIEMAC87 and the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS WIN BY A COUNTRY MILE – nearly doubling the score of the runner up.
                        # TEAM PRE-UDFA Score UDFA Drafted Score UDFA Signed Score Total Points
                        1 New England Patriots (eddiemac87) 961 35 16 1,012
                        2 New Orleans Saints (Old Dude) 557 75 8 640
                        3 San Francisco 49ers (Gordon Gekko) 568 0 3 571
                        4 New York Giants (-Rod-) 481 25 0 506
                        5-6 Cincinnati Bengals (cmhargrove) 463 0 16 479
                        5-6 Houston Texans (DomCasual) 455 10 14 479
                        7 Seattle Seahawks (Broncos23) 475 dnp dnp 475
                        8 Detroit Lions (JCMElway / Dbroncos4life) 435 20 16 471
                        9 Los Angeles Rams (codysseus) 445 dnp dnp 445
                        10 Pittsburgh Steelers (BowlenBall) 361 25 38 424
                        11 Las Vegas Raiders (RaiderDave) 388 10 22 420
                        12 Cleveland Browns (phibacka31) 415 dnp dnp 415
                        13 Los Angeles Chargers (PRBronco) 351 50 2 403
                        14 Tennessee Titans (SGB) 386 dnp dnp 386
                        15 Indianapolis Colts (OBF1) 370 0 4 374
                        16-17 Buffalo Bills (gunns) 306 25 2 333
                        16-17 Chicago Bears (SoDak Bronco) 333 dnp dnp 333
                        18 New York Jets (jebures) 286 10 29 325
                        19 Baltimore Ravens (IndelibleScribe) 270 50 0 320
                        20 Dallas Cowboys (lukeb55) 291 15 12 318
                        21 Carolina Panthers (Ark) 223 30 29 282
                        22 Denver Broncos (Carmelo15) 250 25 6 281
                        23 Philadelphia Eagles (Aztec Bronco) 280 dnp dnp 280
                        24 Jacksonville Jaguars (Shananahan) 262 dnp dnp 262
                        25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pewter Pride) 236 15 9 260
                        26 Green Bay Packers (ColoradoBuff) 256 dnp dnp 256
                        27 Miami Dolphins (Florida_Bronco) 240 dnp dnp 240
                        28 Kansas City Chiefs (Zerovoltz) 136 35 32 203
                        29 Washington Commanders (Big Cheese) 186 dnp dnp 186
                        30 Minnesota Vikings (Vera Hara) 128 0 2 130
                        31 Atlanta Falcons (Nalenite66) 43 40 25 108
                        32 Arizona Cardinals (Ludo21) 78 10 0 88
                        ​
                        Last edited by Old Dude; 05-01-2023, 09:04 PM.
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                        • #13
                          That's all folks.
                          Last edited by Old Dude; 05-01-2023, 09:04 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Later on, I'll post some additional ideas on the scoring system - mostly to make it easier on the tabulator.

                            Edit: So here are my two issues. And most of you don't have to deal with this, so consider taking my word for it.

                            1. The "positional value" calculations are a pain in the butt - even under this simplified system. They took me the better part of a day. You have to review the entire draft for all 32 teams. Then you have to examine each and every of the 259 mock picks, scratch out the UDFA misses, and then categorize each pick. And at the end of the day, as a general rule, your score on this prong is going to depend primarily on the completely arbitrary factor of how many picks the counterpart of your team made in the real draft. If I'm still alive and kicking to handle this system next year, I'm either going to ditch this factor entirely or find some way to simplify it even further (perhaps by just looking at the first 3 rounds).

                            2. I love the UDFA phase. Most of us do. But, again, it is a royal pain in the butt to track down all the UDFA signings when there are a number of people who are just too busy or disinterested to do it for their own teams. I might consider restricting the UDFA phase (for scoring purposes only) to those UDFAs who were actually drafted - and then either doubling their "round" value or doing a pure raw relative value calculation. But this could change the way people approach the UDFA phase, so I need to think about it more.

                            .
                            Last edited by Old Dude; 05-01-2023, 10:10 PM.

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                            • #15
                              14th? 14th!!!

                              Hell yeah! Much better than 31st

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                              • #16
                                Looks like Eddie Mac's spray-and-pray approach worked out out this year. Interesting.

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                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by BowlenBall View Post
                                  Looks like Eddie Mac's spray-and-pray approach worked out out this year. Interesting.
                                  Honestly, it was more than just that. He was sharpshooting like Barry Pepper in Saving Private Ryan. Pick after pick after pick got him great value and the only two "misses" didn't miss by much. My guess is that he wins by an even bigger margin in the MUGs version. He absolutely killed it.

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                                  • #18
                                    Long story short: more picks, higher scores!

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                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by Vera Hara View Post
                                      Long story short: more picks, higher scores!
                                      I'm willing to trade my 2023 1st round pick for thirty-two 7th round picks. Any takers?
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                                      • #20
                                        Eli Ricks absolutely killed what otherwise was a good draft and UDFA haul for me.

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                                        • Old Dude
                                          #20.1
                                          Old Dude commented
                                          05-02-2023, 01:37 AM
                                          Editing a comment
                                          Under this system, the Tyler Scott pick actually hurt you more in terms of sheer points. (Loss of 70 potential points - downgrading the 3rd round pick + the penalty - compared to the -50 for Ricks.) But I'll bet Ricks will hurt your draft much more severely under the MUGs system. Still, it was a calculated gamble. Plenty of forecasters had him going substantially higher.
                                      • #21
                                        I'm sorry for your loss or happy for your success but I ain't reading all that.

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                                        • #22
                                          Originally posted by BowlenBall View Post

                                          I'm willing to trade my 2023 1st round pick for thirty-two 7th round picks. Any takers?
                                          Yes.

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                                          • #23
                                            Thanks for all the work! My strategy of not studying at all seemed to get me exactly what I thought. Last place! Although I do like all my guys and I’m excited to see how they perform on the field
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                                          • #24
                                            Originally posted by Ludo21 View Post
                                            Thanks for all the work! My strategy of not studying at all seemed to get me exactly what I thought. Last place! Although I do like all my guys and I’m excited to see how they perform on the field
                                            I think you did great. ODESSA is in its early stages of development. Obviously a few issues.

                                            As you can see it was biased against my efforts with the Vikings.

                                            I've been in contact with a few of my friends and we will be bringing BERUIT to the Orange Huddle next draft.

                                            Say goodbye to MUG's math and ODESSA.

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                                            • #25
                                              Thank you for the hard work, it was a fun draft.
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