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Remaining Schedule and Play-off Odds.

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  • Remaining Schedule and Play-off Odds.


    Following a very lackluster October,a surprising November, and middling early December, the Broncos are mathematically still vying for a play-off spot. Our Special Teams remains a dumpster fire and our offense looks like it is being run by someone stuck on page 5 of An idiot's guide to NFL Football. But, a stout defense and soft schedule has kept us in the mix with a 7-6 record as of 12/14.

    So, I'm looking at our remaining 4 games and trying to determine our likelihood of victory in each match up.


    Dec 19 Bengals at Mile High

    This is a weird one. If you had asked a month ago, I would have given this one to the Bengals without question. But they are just so inconsistent. I think it is largely the youth of some of their squad. They appear to be on the right path, but it might take a few more seasons for them to completely mature. At any rate, I give us about a 50% chance of winning this match.

    Dec 26 Raiders at Las Vegas

    The Raiders are reeling from bad break after bad break. Seriously, if they weren't the Raiders, I would feel sorry for the crap they have had to endure this season. But come boxing day, I suspect none of that will matter as Derek Carr and company always find a way to light up Fangio's defenses. This is a game we should win, but our coaching staff is sadly not up to the task. I give it about a 40% chance of victory.

    Jan 2 Chargers at Los Angeles

    Another strangely inconsistent team. The Chargers always find ways to strangely under-perform the talent they have on both sides of the ball. But, I suspect they may want some payback for screwing up their last game against us. Herbert will likely come out firing. I don't like our odds right now. I put our chances of Victory at 35%.

    Jan 9 Chiefs at Mile High

    This one depends largely on how the rankings shake out between now and the end of the season. The Chiefs may be resting their starters, or they may be playing for the Number 1 seed position in the play-offs. If it is the former, I give us a 55% chance of victory, if it is the latter, 30% chance.


    So, in our remaining 4 games, there is only one I would give us even odds on, and one I would give us advantage on provided our opponent has nothing to play for. So yeah, I would say are play-off chances are probably around 35% right now. Those aren't odds I would bet, but it wouldn't be inconceivable.



  • #2
    I’ve said this team blows day one.


    but the position they are in now they can win out. Bengals Raiders LA can be wins if they play complete games.

    KC likely has the last game locked up so if they rest starters that’s winnable too.


    team needs 11 wins to get in. 10 if they are extremely lucky and other teams lose.



    Fangio wants to keep his job? Win all 4.

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    • #3
      I would say Paton has done a wonderful job this year. HIs draft was a hoerun, His team goal was to be playing "meaningful games in December" and Denver has done that. He's rebuilding the culture here. It's actually refreshing to enjoy the games again although Bongwater drives me nut.

      Indy beats NE you can probaly lock up 2 WC slots.

      At this point I think Denver needs to win the west. That its best shot at playoffs and the AFCW is still in front of them. KC needs to lose this TNF.

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      • #4
        It's very doable. But I'm not sure the heart is there yet. We need better play from TB. We need our OL to really step it up.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post
          It's very doable. But I'm not sure the heart is there yet. We need better play from TB. We need our OL to really step it up.
          OL is the least of our worries. Teddy's pocket time is above average. Guy just takes an extraordinary amount of time on his checkdowns.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by BroncoBeavis View Post

            OL is the least of our worries. Teddy's pocket time is above average. Guy just takes an extraordinary amount of time on his checkdowns.
            I don't get the checkdown stuff. Kind of like guys wanting us to throw more jump balls.

            No. We're going to need our OL to be excellent if we're to win out.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post
              It's very doable. But I'm not sure the heart is there yet. We need better play from TB. We need our OL to really step it up.
              It is very possible. Teddy needs to play like he was early on, and do it in the big games. Shurmur needs ti help him & the WRs. With the run game play action pass is the key. I have seen Teddy do it. That long ball against the Cowboys to Timmy Pat & the toss to Fant in the last game.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Shellback88 View Post

                It is very possible. Teddy needs to play like he was early on, and do it in the big games. Shurmur needs ti help him & the WRs. With the run game play action pass is the key. I have seen Teddy do it. That long ball against the Cowboys to Timmy Pat & the toss to Fant in the last game.
                We need to get Sutton open with picks. We're going to need TB and the OL to make it all happen.

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                • #9

                  .

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                  • #10
                    Bengals are beatable.
                    match-ups favor the Broncos.

                    Raiders will be a vengeance game for the Broncos. We win because game tape figured them out after they pulled one on us last time. Plus Callahan and OJ will be back so no Fuller to get smoked all game.

                    Chargers should be ours again, match ups favor the Broncos.

                    KC... Hard to do. But possible if we can run the ball and actually dink to scores. Could be for the division. Could be they rest starters. But it's not a marked in L.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post

                      I don't get the checkdown stuff. Kind of like guys wanting us to throw more jump balls.

                      No. We're going to need our OL to be excellent if we're to win out.
                      It's been said by others elsewhere, but this is one of the prime differences between middling and good NFL QBs. Great passing offenses are built by the throw, not by the receiver generating space. Sometimes you're that fortunate. But when the chips are down, you've got to know how to complete passes anyway.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post

                        We need to get Sutton open with picks. We're going to need TB and the OL to make it all happen.
                        Teddy can do it. This year reminds me a bit of the Tebow year in that we may barely make playoffs and maybe win a game (let’s do it for DT!). Then in the offseason we get a great QB, like when we got Manning. Lock can play Brock, lol. Maybe Rogers or Wilson.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Drunk Monkey View Post

                          .
                          Lmao perfect!

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BroncoBeavis View Post

                            It's been said by others elsewhere, but this is one of the prime differences between middling and good NFL QBs. Great passing offenses are built by the throw, not by the receiver generating space. Sometimes you're that fortunate. But when the chips are down, you've got to know how to complete passes anyway.
                            Teddy has hit some nice throws, so we know he can do it. That one to Timmy Pat vs Dallas was beautiful! In the Lions game, the one to Fant was great. I think Shurmur likes to be too complicated at times. I believe the commitment to running came from behind closed doors & Fangio pushing on that.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BroncoBeavis View Post

                              It's been said by others elsewhere, but this is one of the prime differences between middling and good NFL QBs. Great passing offenses are built by the throw, not by the receiver generating space. Sometimes you're that fortunate. But when the chips are down, you've got to know how to complete passes anyway.
                              The great teams have guys that get yards after the catch. How they get to that point doesn't matter. All those checkdowns are really just plays counting on YAC to be successful. Sometimes it is and sometimes it ain't.

                              No doubt having a top tier QB is worth it. And we don't have one of those. So we have to adjust the best we can until that problem is solved. Just whatever you do, don't suggest Lock. Some of us already know what we have.

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                              • #16
                                Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post

                                The great teams have guys that get yards after the catch. How they get to that point doesn't matter. All those checkdowns are really just plays counting on YAC to be successful. Sometimes it is and sometimes it ain't.

                                No doubt having a top tier QB is worth it. And we don't have one of those. So we have to adjust the best we can until that problem is solved. Just whatever you do, don't suggest Lock. Some of us already know what we have.
                                Besides 2 HOF QBs in Brady and Rodgers most playoff teams in this era have QBs who get 1st downs by their feet when they need it.

                                pocket passers are relics now.


                                this team relies on throwing short of sticks to get first downs. Which means a lot of punts.

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                                • #17
                                  I've played around with the ESPN playoff machine a bit -

                                  http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine


                                  and I've never come out with a scenario that has Denver making it!

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                                  • Old Coyote
                                    Old Coyote commented
                                    Editing a comment
                                    A. Win out and KC drops another one to LAC: win Division.

                                    B. Win out and KC beats LAC.
                                    Getting 5th or 6th seed is likely.

                                    C. Drop one to KC but other teams help.
                                    Get 7th seed is highly possible.

                                    More possible letters if you look at the other teams and get more specific.

                                    But Broncos needed to beat the lions and have a Raiders loss, a Dolphins loss, a Bengals loss and a buffalo loss this past week to become in control of real wildcard hopes. And that all happened... There were other ways, but this one happened.

                                    Facts are that other than the division leaders the rest of the AFC are basically just as bad as we are.... Or worse. We suck, but so does everyone we are battling for 3 WC slots with.

                                • #18
                                  Originally posted by The1percentKid View Post

                                  Besides 2 HOF QBs in Brady and Rodgers most playoff teams in this era have QBs who get 1st downs by their feet when they need it.

                                  pocket passers are relics now.


                                  this team relies on throwing short of sticks to get first downs. Which means a lot of punts.
                                  I agree. Speed is the new drug at QB. And it's a game of inches.

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                                  • #19
                                    Originally posted by The1percentKid View Post

                                    Besides 2 HOF QBs in Brady and Rodgers most playoff teams in this era have QBs who get 1st downs by their feet when they need it.

                                    pocket passers are relics now.


                                    this team relies on throwing short of sticks to get first downs. Which means a lot of punts.

                                    I think calling pocket passers a relic is a bit premature, particularly considering the fact that Mac Jones is currently the most successful Rookie QB from this recent draft class and he is the definition of a pocket passer. There are significant advantages to having a guy like Murray, Jackson, or Mahomes that can pick up first downs with their legs. But, If I had to chose between those attributes and the ability to quickly and accurately read open space then deliver pinpoint accurate passes downfield, I'm going with the latter.

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                                    • #20
                                      Originally posted by OmegaBronco View Post

                                      The great teams have guys that get yards after the catch. How they get to that point doesn't matter. All those checkdowns are really just plays counting on YAC to be successful. Sometimes it is and sometimes it ain't.
                                      That's generally not accidental. Good QBs know where the after-catch yards are. Watching Teddy play doesn't scream "these guys aren't getting their YACs!" Most the time when his guys fall short of the sticks it appears completely expected.

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                                      • #21
                                        For tie-breaker purposes, (after going through that playoff scenario simulator) a win against the Bengals is an absolute must for the Broncos. It pretty much kills there chances if they don't win that game. Seems they also need to win two of the three divisional games as well.

                                        Comment


                                        • Old Coyote
                                          Old Coyote commented
                                          Editing a comment
                                          Yes.
                                          Only 10-7 or 11-6 make the show.
                                          And we can't get in without beating Cincinnati unless multiple teams drop multiple games. But beat Cincinnati and Broncos continue to control their playoff chances. It's basically a playoff game for both teams to see who keeps their hopes alive. Gonna be fun to have a game that matters in late Dec again.

                                        • Requiem
                                          Requiem commented
                                          Editing a comment
                                          Agreed. I think 10 wins is pretty much standard to get in. It's crazy how many teams are still mathematically in the hunt. Gonna have to root for some help along the way!

                                      • #22
                                        I have little to no hope for them to make the playoffs. I don’t see it happening with this coaching staff or quarterbacks. I would love for them to prove me wrong.

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                                        • #23
                                          I have played with the Playoff machine....10 wins is going to be big problem for Denver because of bad tiebreakers. The 10 wins could get Denver in...as best I can tell it would be very beneficial to Denver's chances if the Patriots beat the Colts this weekend. As things play out, Denver is F'd in a big logjam of 10-7 teams that includes a 10-7 Indy. Denver winning out and getting to 11 would get them almost for sure. That's a big ask. The Bengals, Chargers and Chiefs all have huge stakes to play for most likely.

                                          A loss to the sparklers isn't a deal breaker but that makes the KC game a must win with help (like Indy finishing 9-8 and not 10-7. for some reason a 10-7 Indy finish is a Bronco killer)

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                                          • #24
                                            If they win 10 games with Bridgewater and this coaching staff I’ll be stunned.

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                                            • #25
                                              Give it up it isn’t happening Fangio and staff are gone along with Teddy🤞

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