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**DD55** · 08-14-2022, 08:56 AM

You absolutely have to have a QB and they will cost a lot. You can gamble and hope you hit in the draft but you can go decades that route. Cap goes up so the big QB salary can be easy to swallow. You will need to hit on starters in the draft is a key.

**The1percentKid** · 08-14-2022, 09:00 AM

If that’s the case there would be alot more bad/average QBs winning SBs….

Think of this…take away each starting QB in every SB winner. Replace them with their back up from week 1 on. Do they win the SB? Nope. Rodgers goes down packers are done. Mahomes goes down KC is done. Allen goes down Bills aren’t making the playoffs. I can do this for every team. Wilson rips his ACL next week? Broncos season is over. Every one of those teams could have elite players at various positions. They could have the best pass rusher in history. Won’t matter if a back up QB is starting…it’s extremely rare to win if your starting QB doesn’t play a snap from week 1 on to end of season.

it’s the most important position by far. Most impactful in a game. So highest paid is natural for the position.

Rams were stacked. They couldn’t win a SB until they brought in their QB. And their season is over if Stafford is taken off the roster.

**DD55** · 08-14-2022, 09:36 AM

Even if you built an a great D and OL through the draft you won't be able to resign them all. Throw in the throw away years with cluster injuries and it is a very small window to capitalize if there even is a window. The ONLY long term success plan is what KC has right now and what Denver hopes to have. A QB with good GM and coaching.

**Tangerine** · 08-14-2022, 09:45 AM

The problem with the 5k stat mentioned is that QBs that threw that many yards were forced to, because their team was lacking in defense or running game. No matter how good your QB is, you still don’t want them throwing 50+ times a game, if they are, it means something else is going vastly wrong.

You need a great quarterback AND a balanced team.

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by The1percentKid View Post

If that’s the case there would be alot more bad/average QBs winning SBs….

Think of this…take away each starting QB in every SB winner. Replace them with their back up from week 1 on. Do they win the SB? Nope. Rodgers goes down packers are done. Mahomes goes down KC is done. Allen goes down Bills aren’t making the playoffs. I can do this for every team. Wilson rips his ACL next week? Broncos season is over. Every one of those teams could have elite players at various positions. They could have the best pass rusher in history. Won’t matter if a back up QB is starting…it’s extremely rare to win if your starting QB doesn’t play a snap from week 1 on to end of season.

it’s the most important position by far. Most impactful in a game. So highest paid is natural for the position.

Rams were stacked. They couldn’t win a SB until they brought in their QB. And their season is over if Stafford is taken off the roster.

Why hasn't one time the highest paid QB won a SB? Why, of all of those 5000 yard seasons not one won the SB the year they did it?

Does Aikman have a SB without that line?

Brady's last SB win in NE they won 13-3. Rams tied the record for least points scored in a SB.

The Buccaneers won that SB and the Chiefs scored 13 points. Far below their average.

Was Nick Foles really all of that or Joe Flacco? For some reason bill celicrap sat Malcolm Butler in that SB. Brilliant.

Why only when Brady restructured his contract that made him the 18th highest paid QB did they start winning SBs again?

The discussion is about value. How many QBs can overcome a bad defense or bad OL? Brady couldn't. Manning couldn't. Ailman couldn't.

Which ones throughout history? Any? Which ones? Marino never won one. Fouts never got to one.

The one year Brees did win it they did have the number 6 rushing offense that year.

The number one defenses in the SB win overwhelmingly more when facing the number one offense. 9 and 1 i recall.

So, value again.

**DD55** · 08-14-2022, 10:09 AM

People always throw around the highest paid QB has never won the superbowl when it is 1 guy out of 32. It literally changes whenever a QB signs a deal. Couple flaws with that. What does highest paid QB mean? Total compensation per contract? Guaranteed money over contract? Cap hit per that year?

Top QBs win Superbowls outside of a few instances of teams being loaded and not injury riddled. Bronco fans should know this better than anyone.

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by DD55 View Post

People always throw around the highest paid QB has never won the superbowl when it is 1 guy out of 32. It literally changes whenever a QB signs a deal. Couple flaws with that. What does highest paid QB mean? Total compensation per contract? Guaranteed money over contract? Cap hit per that year?

Top QBs win Superbowls outside of a few instances of teams being loaded and not injury riddled. Bronco fans should know this better than anyone.

Not once though in 28 seasons?

Also, please let me know which one of those QBs could overcome a bad defense.

Brees couldn't
Rodgers couldn't
Did Montana really win the SBs solely because of him?

The 49ers defenses were dominant. Shut down Marino, shut down the Bengals offense.

Shut down Elway to 10 points and were very dominant in 95.

Which QBs (top QBs) won it all without a balanced offense (OL) and good defense?

Any?

Which ones?

**ceh** · 08-14-2022, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Midnightorange View Post

Some interesting things to ponder about that. One, to date during the hard cap era (1994 to present) the team with the highest paid QB has not won a SB. Read that again. Not once.

I believe it's 13 times (could be more) a QB has passed for 5000+ yards and none of them won the SB the year they did it.

Now it might be a bit skewed with the extra game, but that to me makes a point.

I seem to recall Drew Brees passing for 5000 yards a few times and 3 years in a row they were 7-9 in those seasons. Makes me wonder why Sean Payton gets so much more respect than Mike McCarthy considering they pretty much have done the same thing.

Aaaanyway, we all have the case study staring at us in the face. 2013 Broncos and 2015 Broncos. 2013, put up best offensive numbers ever. Only team ever to score 600+ points. Manning broke all of the records for yards and TDs. Get smoked by the number one defense.

Two years later, one of the most inept offenses (same basic players.) They were 1 for 14 on 3rd downs breaking the all time record for ineptitude in a SB. They scored one offensive TD and that was a 4 yard drive and got extra downs due to a PI call.

So, in the hard cap era its all about VALUE. The two main ingredients every championship team have had. An effective balanced offense that is only possible with a strong OL and a solid to great defense.

Great OLs will make average QBS good and good QBs great. Reference Aikman among others.

So, where does leave us in regards to VALUE? There are more and more reasons RBs are not of great value AT ALL.

Btw, it was interesting too with Brady. His first 4 seasons he was 10-0 in the playoffs with 3 rings. None of the seasons he won those did he pass for 4000 yards or 30 Tds. Then they paid him top dollar. Started dismantling their defense. Got rid of Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork among others.

Next 10 seasons Brady put up his pretty stats but was 8-8 in the playoffs, zero SB wins all while that defense ranked consistently in the 20s. Then in 2014, Brady did something with his contract making him the 18th highest paid QB in the NFL. They go out sign Revis, a key pass rusher among others. Have their first top 10 defense in years and they win it on a defensive play.

Getting that yet or not? Just some observations.

that’s exactly what elway thought 2016-2020. how did that turn out? Minny also thought the same thing.

what if you changed your premise to QBs that have played in the Championship games the last 10-15 years?

those names seem to be the same every year.

id rather be in that conversation than to look at winning the super bowl which even for those elite QBs is hard to do

alot have to fall your way

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Tangerine View Post

The problem with the 5k stat mentioned is that QBs that threw that many yards were forced to, because their team was lacking in defense or running game. No matter how good your QB is, you still don’t want them throwing 50+ times a game, if they are, it means something else is going vastly wrong.

You need a great quarterback AND a balanced team.

Pretty sure you made my point about the 5000 yard seasons and not all of them were like what you described.

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by ceh View Post

that’s exactly what elway thought 2016-2020. how did that turn out? Minny also thought the same thing.

what if you changed your premise to QBs that have played in the Championship games the last 10-15 years?

those names seem to be the same every year.

id rather be in that conversation than to look at winning the super bowl which even for those elite QBs is hard to do

alot have to fall your way

Were the Broncos OLs good during that time?

**Aztec Bronco** · 08-14-2022, 10:37 AM

The Bucs and Rams showed what the most effective model is. Build a badass roster and wait for a veteran QB to come available while maximizing everything else. Almost never happened before Peyton but it’s now something smart teams will take advantage of.

**Tangerine** · 08-14-2022, 10:41 AM

What’s the difference between the 2008 Saints that went 8-8 with Brees throwing 5k yards, and the 2009 Saints that were 13-3 and won the Super Bowl?

2008 the Saints had the 5th worst running game, by 2009 they improved vastly to the 6th best. Brees threw a staggering 120 less passes in 2009. Although he still had a great season by every metric, he wasn’t forced to throw too much, the team offense was much more balanced. Defense was bad both years, so that’s a moot point.

2008 was a seriously flawed team, think week 3 when they played the Broncos, they fell down 21-3 early forcing Brees to throw nearly 50 times for 400 yards to come back, only to still lose at the end. 2 weeks later nearly the same thing happened against the Vikings.

2008 Saints were not a good team, Brees or anybody else’s arm wasn’t going to save them. On the same token, as much improved the 2009 Saints were, there’s no way they win anything without Brees.

**DD55** · 08-14-2022, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Midnightorange View Post

Not once though in 28 seasons?

Also, please let me know which one of those QBs could overcome a bad defense.

Brees couldn't
Rodgers couldn't
Did Montana really win the SBs solely because of him?

The 49ers defenses were dominant. Shut down Marino, shut down the Bengals offense.

Shut down Elway to 10 points and were very dominant in 95.

Which QBs (top QBs) won it all without a balanced offense (OL) and good defense?

Any?

Which ones?

First of all I didn't say being good on D isn't important. Second of all what do you use to determine if a defense was good?

2006 Colts D was mediocre. Sure they played well in the playoffs but overall they were not great.

2008 Saints D was bottom of the league.

Queefs SB D had some serious holes but their O kept teams in predictable situations.

As far as the Montana 9ers it isn't even applicable as no salary cap. Uncle Eddy had free reign to spend whatever he wanted. Pretty sure he was able skirt under the table payments for the Young ERA that we have all heard rumors.

There are a bunch of teams that could have won a SB with better in game management, 1 break etc like Falcons(horrible D and highly paid QB), AZ Cardinals, Bengals and 2017 Pats.

**ceh** · 08-14-2022, 11:48 AM

so Ravens should be winning Super Bowls more than once every 10 years?

why did Kyle decide to sell the farm for Lance when he had jimmy G?

both perfect models for your premise

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by DD55 View Post

First of all I didn't say being good on D isn't important. Second of all what do you use to determine if a defense was good?

2006 Colts D was mediocre. Sure they played well in the playoffs but overall they were not great.

2008 Saints D was bottom of the league.

Queefs SB D had some serious holes but their O kept teams in predictable situations.

As far as the Montana 9ers it isn't even applicable as no salary cap. Uncle Eddy had free reign to spend whatever he wanted. Pretty sure he was able skirt under the table payments for the Young ERA that we have all heard rumors.

There are a bunch of teams that could have won a SB with better in game management, 1 break etc like Falcons(horrible D and highly paid QB), AZ Cardinals, Bengals and 2017 Pats.

In 2006, Bob Sanders made a significant impact on that defense. Prior to the Colts' first-round game against Kansas City, many believed Larry Johnson would run wild in a Chiefs' win that would send the Colts home early once again.He came back just in time for that game, and the defense immediately improved, not at all resembling the porous D the Colts had been running out there during the regular season. Indianapolis went on to win it all, thanks in large part to the play of Sanders.

The Saints defense in 2009 was sort of bailed out by a dumb play by Favre with that bone head int at the end of that game.

The Saints ran that 3-3-5 look in the SB, and it was actually quite effective and really a great call by Dennis Allen. They knew all too well that Manning feasted on 4-3 bases typically.

The Montana years without the cap is somewhat my point. Back before the cap, the "value" was strictly on the owners willingness to pay or not to pay. Period.

The hard cap made it so VALUE is everything. So, you have to see what's MOST VALUABLE.

Why hasn't Rodgers won one since 2010 for instance when that defense in 2010 gave up 15 ppg? 2015 Broncos gave up 18.5 ppg.

**Midnightorange** · 08-14-2022, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by The1percentKid View Post

If that’s the case there would be alot more bad/average QBs winning SBs….

Think of this…take away each starting QB in every SB winner. Replace them with their back up from week 1 on. Do they win the SB? Nope. Rodgers goes down packers are done. Mahomes goes down KC is done. Allen goes down Bills aren’t making the playoffs. I can do this for every team. Wilson rips his ACL next week? Broncos season is over. Every one of those teams could have elite players at various positions. They could have the best pass rusher in history. Won’t matter if a back up QB is starting…it’s extremely rare to win if your starting QB doesn’t play a snap from week 1 on to end of season.

it’s the most important position by far. Most impactful in a game. So highest paid is natural for the position.

Rams were stacked. They couldn’t win a SB until they brought in their QB. And their season is over if Stafford is taken off the roster.

You see by any chance the production of their defense? Specifically when they got Von? They signed Von too. Remember him?

Forget?

Miller, who won Super Bowl MVP for the Broncos thanks to a performance that featured 2.5 sacks and two fumbles forced, had yet another remarkable showing in the second Super Bowl appearance of his career. Miller tallied two sacks, which weighed heavy on the outcome of this close game, and gave him 4.5 sacks across the two Super Bowls.

That total is good enough to tie him with Charles Haley for the most in Super Bowl history, but where it took Haley five Super Bowls to reach that number (.9 sacks per appearance), it only took Miller two (2.25 sacks per appearance). That’s the highest sack rate of any player in NFL history to have appeared in multiple Super Bowls, and the fourth-best rate among all players to appear in a Super Bowl (trailing only Grady Jarrett, Kony Ealy, and Darnell Dockett).

**v2micca** · 08-15-2022, 09:09 AM

The central thesis of this post seems to misunderstand the basics of probability. When analysts say that attempting to win a Superbowl with below average QB play is statistically challenging, they don't claim it to be impossible. 10% odds in fact means that an event will regularly occur in 1 out 10 iterations. And honestly, that rate more or less matches up with the number of times we have seen a team win a Superbowl with below average QB play.

But, if you are building your team concept around 1 in 10 odds, I don't think it is incorrect to claim that you are not setting your team up for success. Having an elite QB on your team doesn't guarantee a Superbowl appearance or even a post-season birth. But upgrading the QB position will proportionally impact your odds of winning more than any other position on the field, and its not even really that close.

Love it or hate it, getting that one position correct does more to set you team for success than any other position on the field. And we have seen concrete examples of this phenomenon. The 2010 colts when from a playoff team to collecting the number 1 overall draft pick just by removing Peyton Manning. Adding Andrew Luck to that same squad turned them back into a playoff team. The Packers were so desperate to retain Aaron Rodgers even with his drama, because they know that starting Jordan Love would condemn them to a sub .500 season.

**cmhargrove** · 08-15-2022, 09:31 AM

I think you make great points here, but this isn't an argument that can't really be "won."

So your alternative it to draft a QB that can win a Super Bowl. Well, we've tried that a bunch of times and haven't made the playoffs in years. So, here is a question - how many of those Super Bowl winning teams drafted their own QB? If you can't do that successfully the rest of the discussion flies out the window. You either have to make one, or buy one. We couldn't make one.

Maybe Paton is capable of picking "that guy" down the road, but its obvious that Wal-Mart is perfectly happy to buy one. They didn't get into this league to lose, and they have piles of cash ready to turn the Broncos into "a winner" again.

Good thread, and good thoughts though.

**Ark** · 08-15-2022, 09:41 AM

It’s a myth Elway wasn’t trying to get a franchise QB. These were the 1st round QBs Elway had to choose from:

Paxton Lynch in 2016
Nobody in 2017

2018
Josh Allen (similar to Lynch coming out)
Josh Rosen (projected to go ahead of Allen)
Lamar Jackson (no way he goes in top 5)

Dwayne Haskins in 2019 (drafted Lock in 2nd)
Nobody in 2020
Justin Fields and Mac Jones in 2021

Yeah, hindsight is 20/20, and everybody will say they were wanting to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Nobody will admit wanting to draft Lock, but I remember how the drafts really went down around here.

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It's a QBs league right? Can't win without one. So need to pay them top dollar, right?

It's a QBs league right? Can't win without one. So need to pay them top dollar, right?

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