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For posterity of course.
***Done not knowing the final determination for DeShaun Watson***
I make a spreadsheet of every game and go through and try and impossibly predict the outcome of every single one. I try and take into account short rest, travel to the east of west coast, etc. It's a fools errand, but it's a good way to guestimate where teams will end up....short of Vegas Odds....which are pretty good and put together by poeple WAY WAY smarter than me.
Anyhow...here is what I've come up with -
Playoff teams and seeds
AFC
1. KC - Yes, I am biased. I am not telling you the record I came up with....it's NOT undefeated.....and it was tied with what I had for the Chargers. Chiefs win tiebreaker.
2. Baltimore - All the injuries, combined with a lot of metrics that should regress to the mean in their favor, and I like Baltimore. I think Lamar isn't an elite passer, but better than he gets creidt for.
3. Buffalo - A really good team, and will be a tough out in the playoffs. They go from playing one of the easiest schedules to one of the top 5 hardest. Their division sucks though, so that helps.
4. Titans - I actually have them finishing 8-9 and winning the god awful AFC South. Henry is used up and they have no WR's worth a damn..and Tannehill can't carry them.
5. LA Chargers..lose tie breaker to KC, but finish with strong record. Team benefits from fairly easy schedule.
6. Bengals - Finish in tie with Ravens for division, but lose tiebreakers. Another tough out for any playoff opponent.
7. Cleveland Browns - I have them doing well, assuming the suspension is 6 games....and if there is an appeal lawsuit etc...and he plays all year while that plays out...maybe they finish a little higher. I have them in.
NFC
1. Green Bay. - STILL in a division that they should handle and the conference isn't better than even last year.
2. LA Rams - As long as Stafford is healthy....if not, this won't hold.
3. New Orleans - I think the Saints benefit from the long overdue drop off for Brady, and the Falcons and Panthers being total ass.
4. PHILLY - Benefit greatly from once again playing the putird NFC East AND playing the AFC South.
5. San Francisco - This is base on the idea that the roster is stacked...Lance might suck but the roster ought to be strong enough to carry him in games at times this year.
6. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins....is good enough to lead a team to a WC spot...and they had some bad luck in certain metrics last year. Weak conference and division...the roster isn't bad. This is a playoff team.
7. Tampa Bay - ....they eek into the final WC spot on the strenght of their good pass rush and favorable schedule. Tom finally begins to look old. Finally. Really.
I have Denver going 8-9......that could go to as high as 10 as I made the call to have them lose the opener to Seattle....and only winning 2 division games...both against the Raiders...if you could find a win among the 4 games with KC and LAC...and give them the seattle opener...you get to 10. That still leaves Denver just out of the playoffs...I think it will take 11 to get in in the AFC. Or...the other controversial game I have is week 3 SF beating Denver in Denver....SF is a tough D and I don't believe Denver's offense will have gelled yet. You could easily argue that SF will be throwing out Trey Lance in hostile einvironment.
To get to 11, Denver would need to win games it's supposed to win, steal one from LAC or KC, AND win @Seattle, and at home VS the Niners. That's a tall task. EVEN if they get to 11, I think you are still in a tie breakers situation to see who gets the 7 seed.
Top 4 draft picks.
1. NY Jets
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Chicago Bears
4. Pittsburg Steelers
I think the Jets continue to have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL and that Zach Wilson is awful. The Bears roster is dreadful, and I am certain they do not believe in Fields. The Steelers play in a rough division and conference and have a bad O line and will be trying to break in a new QB at some point. Better off than the other 3, but still in for a hard time this year.
Teams that are popular playoff picks that won't make it. - Miami, New England, Indy in the AFC. Miami just gets the bad fortune of being in the tough AFC, NE will be encouraged by Mac Jones development, but they need more talent. The Colts will find that Matt Ryan is out of gas and be dissapointed they couldn't win their bad division. Disappointing NFC team - Arizona...the parts are better than the sum of the team...bad leadership...drama, injuries, suspensions, weird contract clauses...they underwhelm again.
Teams that will improve quite a bit but aren't there yet. Detroit - quietly is assembling legit talent. They aren't a playoff team, but I have them winning 7 or 8 games. That's a big leap. I also think Jacksonville, can benefit from having an actual professional coach running things. They have a lot of holes but aren't completely void of talent. They could make a little push in that very bad division.
Coaches to be fired -
Mike McCarthy
Ron Rivera
Matt Rhule
Arthur Smith
Coach Bro - Yes, He just signed an extension...
Some random predictions -
Von Miller isn't effective in Buffalo.
Baker Mayfield proves to be a reasonable upgrade at QB and earns a long term extension in Carolina.
Jimmy G ulitmately ends up in....Tampa.
Trevor Lawrence starts to remind people why he was the no.1 overall pick in his draft class now that he has a real NFL coach.
Ryan Tannehill doens't finish the season as the starter in Tennessee
The Steelers learn that Pickett sucks.
Drew Lock wins the starting job in Seattle
Patrick Mahomes throws for 50 Touchdown passes
Rusell Wilson will be among the 5 most sacked QB's in the leauge.
Kansas City hosts it's unprecedented 5th straight AFC title game, wich it wins defeating the Buffalo Bills a third consecutive season in the playoffs, and goes on to win the Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers.
***Done not knowing the final determination for DeShaun Watson***
I make a spreadsheet of every game and go through and try and impossibly predict the outcome of every single one. I try and take into account short rest, travel to the east of west coast, etc. It's a fools errand, but it's a good way to guestimate where teams will end up....short of Vegas Odds....which are pretty good and put together by poeple WAY WAY smarter than me.
Anyhow...here is what I've come up with -
Playoff teams and seeds
AFC
1. KC - Yes, I am biased. I am not telling you the record I came up with....it's NOT undefeated.....and it was tied with what I had for the Chargers. Chiefs win tiebreaker.
2. Baltimore - All the injuries, combined with a lot of metrics that should regress to the mean in their favor, and I like Baltimore. I think Lamar isn't an elite passer, but better than he gets creidt for.
3. Buffalo - A really good team, and will be a tough out in the playoffs. They go from playing one of the easiest schedules to one of the top 5 hardest. Their division sucks though, so that helps.
4. Titans - I actually have them finishing 8-9 and winning the god awful AFC South. Henry is used up and they have no WR's worth a damn..and Tannehill can't carry them.
5. LA Chargers..lose tie breaker to KC, but finish with strong record. Team benefits from fairly easy schedule.
6. Bengals - Finish in tie with Ravens for division, but lose tiebreakers. Another tough out for any playoff opponent.
7. Cleveland Browns - I have them doing well, assuming the suspension is 6 games....and if there is an appeal lawsuit etc...and he plays all year while that plays out...maybe they finish a little higher. I have them in.
NFC
1. Green Bay. - STILL in a division that they should handle and the conference isn't better than even last year.
2. LA Rams - As long as Stafford is healthy....if not, this won't hold.
3. New Orleans - I think the Saints benefit from the long overdue drop off for Brady, and the Falcons and Panthers being total ass.
4. PHILLY - Benefit greatly from once again playing the putird NFC East AND playing the AFC South.
5. San Francisco - This is base on the idea that the roster is stacked...Lance might suck but the roster ought to be strong enough to carry him in games at times this year.
6. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins....is good enough to lead a team to a WC spot...and they had some bad luck in certain metrics last year. Weak conference and division...the roster isn't bad. This is a playoff team.
7. Tampa Bay - ....they eek into the final WC spot on the strenght of their good pass rush and favorable schedule. Tom finally begins to look old. Finally. Really.
I have Denver going 8-9......that could go to as high as 10 as I made the call to have them lose the opener to Seattle....and only winning 2 division games...both against the Raiders...if you could find a win among the 4 games with KC and LAC...and give them the seattle opener...you get to 10. That still leaves Denver just out of the playoffs...I think it will take 11 to get in in the AFC. Or...the other controversial game I have is week 3 SF beating Denver in Denver....SF is a tough D and I don't believe Denver's offense will have gelled yet. You could easily argue that SF will be throwing out Trey Lance in hostile einvironment.
To get to 11, Denver would need to win games it's supposed to win, steal one from LAC or KC, AND win @Seattle, and at home VS the Niners. That's a tall task. EVEN if they get to 11, I think you are still in a tie breakers situation to see who gets the 7 seed.
Top 4 draft picks.
1. NY Jets
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Chicago Bears
4. Pittsburg Steelers
I think the Jets continue to have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL and that Zach Wilson is awful. The Bears roster is dreadful, and I am certain they do not believe in Fields. The Steelers play in a rough division and conference and have a bad O line and will be trying to break in a new QB at some point. Better off than the other 3, but still in for a hard time this year.
Teams that are popular playoff picks that won't make it. - Miami, New England, Indy in the AFC. Miami just gets the bad fortune of being in the tough AFC, NE will be encouraged by Mac Jones development, but they need more talent. The Colts will find that Matt Ryan is out of gas and be dissapointed they couldn't win their bad division. Disappointing NFC team - Arizona...the parts are better than the sum of the team...bad leadership...drama, injuries, suspensions, weird contract clauses...they underwhelm again.
Teams that will improve quite a bit but aren't there yet. Detroit - quietly is assembling legit talent. They aren't a playoff team, but I have them winning 7 or 8 games. That's a big leap. I also think Jacksonville, can benefit from having an actual professional coach running things. They have a lot of holes but aren't completely void of talent. They could make a little push in that very bad division.
Coaches to be fired -
Mike McCarthy
Ron Rivera
Matt Rhule
Arthur Smith
Coach Bro - Yes, He just signed an extension...
Some random predictions -
Von Miller isn't effective in Buffalo.
Baker Mayfield proves to be a reasonable upgrade at QB and earns a long term extension in Carolina.
Jimmy G ulitmately ends up in....Tampa.
Trevor Lawrence starts to remind people why he was the no.1 overall pick in his draft class now that he has a real NFL coach.
Ryan Tannehill doens't finish the season as the starter in Tennessee
The Steelers learn that Pickett sucks.
Drew Lock wins the starting job in Seattle
Patrick Mahomes throws for 50 Touchdown passes
Rusell Wilson will be among the 5 most sacked QB's in the leauge.
Kansas City hosts it's unprecedented 5th straight AFC title game, wich it wins defeating the Buffalo Bills a third consecutive season in the playoffs, and goes on to win the Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers.
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