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Football Outsiders says Broncos D will be 29th!!!

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  • Football Outsiders says Broncos D will be 29th!!!

    https://www.milehighreport.com/2022/...-contender-afc

    Football Outsiders says our all pro secondary and pass rush heavy Defense with the two Jones's inside will be 29th in the league...

    We will be in shoot outs no doubt, but 29th?

    wow...
    Last edited by wolf754life; 07-31-2022, 05:49 PM.

  • #2
    Is he saying entire D 29th or just DVOA?


    they are pretty on point at 9 wins. I can’t see more than 11 with that schedule. I’d say 9-10 wins is where they’ll end up.

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    • #3
      It's going to require a balanced team to dethrone the mighty Chiefs. Not good!

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      • #4
        Fourth for offense is a bit high and 29th for defense is ridiculously low.

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        • #5

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          • #6
            so our D is only better than 3 teams? Lol
            chiefs defense must be ranked 32nd dvoa

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            • #7
              They are idiots.
              they see no Von Miller.
              But Fangio never used him properly.
              We still might get smoked by TEs.
              But we won't be 17 points behind hoping on Defense to score like the last few years.
              That's a big difference.
              Where will the D be very different from last year as far as talent? The ILBs might be about the same at run stopping and they can only get better or stay the same at coverage.
              OLBs don't feature Miller anymore, but again he wasn't properly used since Radio.

              Furthermore the last time Chubb was used properly he did really well and he's got fire under his ass to earn a contract. And he's healthy... for now. Realistically, half the time injured Gregory plus a half the time injured Chubb, with Reed and whoever wins out of the rest backing up those first guys... but actually trying to rush... Is leaps and bounds better than Miller and Chubb fully healthy but told to hesitate before going because they have to let the other team dictate where they go... Then the other teams catch on and remove the guys from being a threat by sending them off in coverage.

              That change in coaching will trick PFF numbers because the never attack Fangio D caused a false zeroing of our edge rush power. That won't be the case with the new scheme.
              These fellas want to win, not stack their D numbers at the cost of losses like Fangio.

              Now put all that together and the DBs had to be riders in Fangio's system, because the enemy QB only had to deal with rush up the middle. He mitigated that bleed by forcing them all into Zones even when situations said it should have been man to counter the other team. DBs will get help by the Edge rushers actually being allowed to attack this year.

              Seriously, the numbers from Fangio's tenure alone do not tell the full story. The D carried us last year while having it's hands tied behind it's back.

              This year it's release the Dogs of War, not bend but don't break for numbers. This year it's D getting energy back from not constantly going 3 and out. This year the D is getting Energy back from actually believing in their QB. Surtain was a Rookie too.

              All three phases the Broncos should improve. The difference will be we will get beat for some under routes a bit more but that will more than balance out by actually rushing with our edge rushers.
              Last edited by Old Coyote; 08-01-2022, 06:44 AM.

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              • #8
                If they end up lower than 18th then should fired the entire Defensive coaching staff and start again next year.

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                • #9
                  our D last gave up less yards per play than our offense generated yards per play and we know how bad our offense was. the offense actually generated a little more points per drive than the defense gave up per drive.

                  our D played some good offenses last year and teams will lose if they try to boat race a team. Cincy game last is my first expectation for this D this year. 18 points given up against a super bowl caliber O.



                  the titans for example had a top 10 D pretty damn good D , went 12-5 and their D was on the field for the same number of plays as Denver.

                  don’t see how this D is not top 10 easily

                  Evero is installing something similar to Vic’s




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                  • #10
                    Oyr D was good, but the stats were inflated because Fangio was so conservative, the other teams were usually playing with a lead, and Fangio card now about making his Defense look good so he could blame the offense than he did about winning games. I think the defense is going to be good if they stay healthy, but I don't take much from the stats last year.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by SGB View Post
                      Oyr D was good, but the stats were inflated because Fangio was so conservative, the other teams were usually playing with a lead, and Fangio card now about making his Defense look good so he could blame the offense than he did about winning games. I think the defense is going to be good if they stay healthy, but I don't take much from the stats last year.
                      While Denver's D did have a few stinkers.

                      I think you need to look at some of the games vs top 10 offenses.

                      The assumption is teams boat-raced Denver which led to the nice top 3 ranking.

                      Cincy a top 7 offense when were they leading? LAC top 5 offense when were they leading in the game at Mile High? How about 2nd KC game. When were they leading? Dallas top 3 offense when were they leading? Philly another top 12 offense and Denver was 13 yards away from tieing the game at 20 heading into the 4th.


                      4 top 10 offenses that were not leading and scored

                      15
                      13
                      21
                      6

                      The 2nd LV game? That fits the narrative but not sure a NFL team wants to go down 13-7 at the half and hope to boat race Denver .
                      Not sure what Vic was suppose to do in that game.


                      Bottom line is the stats, total plays, yards per play were all consistent with all the top 10 defenses.
                      Last edited by ceh; 08-01-2022, 11:29 AM.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ceh View Post

                        While Denver's D did have a few stinkers.

                        I think you need to look at some of the games vs top 10 offenses.

                        The assumption is teams boat-raced Denver which led to the nice top 3 ranking.

                        Cincy a top 7 offense when were they leading? LAC top 5 offense when were they leading in the game at Mile High? How about 2nd KC game. When were they leading? Dallas top 3 offense when were they leading? Philly another top 12 offense and Denver was 13 yards away from tieing the game at 20 heading into the 4th.


                        4 top 10 offenses that were not leading and scored

                        15
                        13
                        21
                        6

                        The 2nd LV game? That fits the narrative but not sure a NFL team wants to go down 13-7 at the half and hope to boat race Denver .
                        Not sure what Vic was suppose to do in that game.


                        Bottom line is the stats, total plays, yards per play were all consistent with all the top 10 defenses.
                        Are these the rankings based on yards per game like thats meaningful? Broncos played a conservative style that limited yards and points which artificially increased their rankings without having an effect on the game.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SGB View Post

                          Are these the rankings based on yards per game like thats meaningful? Broncos played a conservative style that limited yards and points which artificially increased their rankings without having an effect on the game.
                          Yep this is correct
                          fangio essentially shortened the games with his ultra conservative approach. Not a bad strategy considering how bad our offense was

                          with that being said, i think this years defense talent wise is much improved compared to last seasons defense. Our edge rushers and interior dline are much improved. By far our biggest defensive weakness last season

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                          • #14
                            if Fangio shortened the game then would the defense be on the field less, more or normal amount?




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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SGB View Post

                              Are these the rankings based on yards per game like thats meaningful? Broncos played a conservative style that limited yards and points which artificially increased their rankings without having an effect on the game.
                              top 10 based on PPG. these offenses score points.


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                              • #16
                                I’m okay with them being underrated at this point. They’ll be fine.

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                                • #17
                                  These rankings are BS. No one can accurately predict team performance due to the injury factor, new coaches (schemes), suspensions, and eventual strength of schedule. The only ones who put any stock in this type of crap are the champions of the offseason. We all know who they are on this board.

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                                  • #18
                                    Broncos having an offense that isn't absolute ass will benefit the defense. Added talent helps too.

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                                    • #19
                                      On paper, we should have a top 10 defense, but there are still questions at Edge & coverage LBers. To me, the biggest questions are at coaching. The entire coaching staff is green, and there will be growing pains. We won’t know how the staff game plans, schemes, etc., until we see it throughout the season so that part remains an unknown.

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                                      • #20
                                        That's crazy. I had us at 34.

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                                        • Old Coyote
                                          Old Coyote commented
                                          Editing a comment
                                          That's only half way minus one to 69.

                                      • #21
                                        Originally posted by RockyMountainOyster View Post
                                        It's going to require a balanced team to dethrone the mighty Chiefs. Not good!
                                        It'd be tough to predict a division win, but 29th...?!

                                        Offense-defense ... 6th/7th - 6th/7th

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                                        • #23
                                          Cincy was top 17 D and beat the chiefs twice

                                          Denver has enough at every position to defeat Chiefs

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                                          • #24
                                            Originally posted by R8R H8R View Post
                                            On paper, we should have a top 10 defense, but there are still questions at Edge & coverage LBers. To me, the biggest questions are at coaching. The entire coaching staff is green, and there will be growing pains. We won’t know how the staff game plans, schemes, etc., until we see it throughout the season so that part remains an unknown.
                                            Exactly 👍

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                                            • #25
                                              We need to evaluate the evaluator too. When they rank the defenses 1-32, what metrics are they using to come up with it?

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